Will it be the Sun wot wins it for the Tories again?

The Sun is in a dither about who to back in the general election: their political stance is apparently a bit like their in/out approach to female nakedness on Page 3.

The Murdoch red-top tell us: “We haven’t yet decided which party we will support before the vote in May. But whichever one can get closest to making our manifesto a reality will get our backing.”

Who are they kidding? Do they really expect us to believe that they will try to help Ed Miliband, the scourge of phone hacking, into Number 10?

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And what about Nigel Farage whose blokeish image plays well with the stereotypical Sun reader?

Not a chance, a senior Sun journalist told me recently. Rupert believes immigration is good for the country. After all, where would the Aussie tycoon have got without emigrating first to Britain and then to the United States?

Of course, a quick scan of the ‘Sunifesto’ published today shows where the paper’s heart is.

Key demands include: “Deficit cleared within five years” ... “In/out referendum after a tough renegotiation of our position with Brussels” ... “A PM willing to lead us out of the EU if renegotiation fails” ... “End to Human Rights Act”…

Spot the difference between that and Tory policy!

After John Major’s surprise victory over Neil Kinnock at the 1992 general election, the then editor Kelvin Mackenzie famously claimed it was the Sun “wot won it” for the Tories. Today, with a declining circulation and the advance of electronic media, such a claim would be absurd.

• Countdown to 7 May: check The Week's daily election round-up

But the 'Sunifesto' shows they’ll do their best for David Cameron – and as the latest opinion polls for the Sun among others show, he needs all the help he can get.

With 100 days to go, five new polls show the Tories and Labour still neck-and-neck and Cameron unable to make the breakthrough he needs for the Conservatives to end up the largest party, let alone win a Commons majority.

The Tories have a one-point lead with three polling companies - Survation for the Daily Mirror, ComRes for the Independent and YouGov for The Sun. Populus put Labour ahead by one and Ashcroft shows a tie. Because of the vagaries of the electoral system, the Tories need to be at least nine points ahead to win a majority.

The vast majority of the marginals are in England and Mike Smithson at Political Betting has listed 50 potential Labour gains. They would offset the expected losses north of the border to the SNP and help push Labour to become the largest party in the House of Commons. That would give Ed Miliband not David Cameron the right to try to form a government.

Details of the polls:

Survation: Con 31% +1, Lab 30% -3, Lib Dem 7% -3, Ukip 23% +2, Green 3% u/c.

Com Res: Con 31 +2, Lab 30 -2, Ukip 17 +1, Lib Dem 8 -4, Green 7 +2.

YouGov: Con 34% +2, Lab 33% -1, Ukip 15 u/c, Lib Dem 6 -1, Green 7 u/c.

Populus: Con 34% +2, Lab 35% -1, Lib Dem 9% u/c, Ukip 13% u/c, Green 6% u/c.

Ashcroft: Con 32% +3, Lab 32% +4, Lib Dem 6% -3, Ukip 15% u/c, Green 9% -1.