Within hours of making his pitch for another term in government - with a manifesto carefully crafted to make it possible to do a coalition deal with either the Tories or Labour - Nick Clegg was hit by a poll suggesting he could lose two-thirds of his MPs.
The ComRes poll for ITV shows a 13 per cent swing from the Lib Dems to the Tories, which ITV reckons will leave Clegg with just 19 of his 57 seats.
With so few MPs, Clegg’s bargaining position would be next to nothing when he seeks a new coalition deal. The party currently has four members in the Cabinet and the deputy premiership: they'd be unlikely to enjoy such influence next time round.
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At particular risk are those Lib Dem MPs fighting to save 14 seats in the party’s southwest “heartland”. The ComRes poll suggests all but one – Bath – could end up in Tory hands on 8 May.
The Lib Dems will point out that the ComRes results are at odds with the findings of Lord Ashcroft who has polled most of the same constituencies and found much smaller swings, suggesting only half the southwest contingent will lose their seats.
Crucially, each Ashcroft poll has a sample of around 1,000 while ComRes polled 1,005 adults across the 14 constituencies. As the New Statesman’s May 2015 site puts it, that means “ComRes can only have quizzed around 70 people in each seat”.
Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report points out that the ComRes and Ashcroft methods are similar: both polls are conducted by phone and use similar weightings to achieve a balanced sample. He believes it may come down to subtle differences in the order the pollsters ask their questions.
If the Lib Dems only faced a threat from the Tories, Clegg's chances of remaining in coalition with Camewron would be better - their joint numbers might still add up to a Commons majority.
But Labour pose a danger to the Lib Dems in London, the Midlands and the North – including Clegg’s Sheffield Hallam seat – while in Scotland the SNP could take virtually all the party’s 11 seats if the Nationalist surge lives up to expectations.
With exactly three weeks to go until polling day, the latest YouGov poll for The Sun sees Labour’s lead over the Tories reduced to one point. Con 34 (up 1), Lab 35 (unchanged), Lib Dems 8 (u/c), Ukip 13 (u/c), Greens 5 (u/c).
In other words, it’s still neck-and-neck - with the arithmetic pointing to Labour emerging the largest party on 8 May.
