NBC's Steve Kornacki previews what to watch in Virginia's nail-biter governor race

There are three special congressional elections on Tuesday — one Republican-leaning seat and one safe Democratic one in Ohio and a primary for a Democratic stronghold in Florida — plus some interesting mayoral races, ugly school board elections around the U.S., and a Minneapolis vote on whether to swap its current police force for a new Department of Public Safety. And New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is expected to win re-election against GOP challenger Jack Ciattarelli.
But the race everyone's watching is Virginia's gubernatorial tossup between former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) and Republican Glenn Youngkin.
NBC political analyst Steve Kornacki previewed what to look for on MSNBC Monday night, without his trademark whiteboard or giant touchscreen, Rachel Maddow explained, "because he's gonna be in front of that darn screen all day tomorrow."
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
President Biden won Virginia by 10 percentage points in 2020, and Democrats will be watching Black turnout and what happens with the large number of white voters with college degrees in suburban Richmond and the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., Kornacki explained. Republicans will also be watching the suburbs and turnout numbers in rural, increasingly red parts of the state. He cautioned about reading too much into early returns, noting that Fairfax County, a Democratic stronghold that reported late in 2020, now plans to release Democratic-friendly early votes and mail-in votes soon after polls close.
"Whether Youngkin's momentum can overcome the state's increasing partisan lean to the left is the central question of the race," Politico reports. Youngkin has been walking a careful line between politely keeping former President Donald Trump at arm's length while trying to convince Trump voters to show up at the polls. "If Youngkin makes inroads in northern Virginia and in the Richmond suburbs, it's a sign he was able to successfully walk the line," The Associated Press reports. "Likewise, if Democrats hold the margins from their successful 2017 gubernatorial race there, it'd be a sign of continued trouble for Republicans in highly educated suburbs."
Republicans will also be watching to see how potent educational culture wars will be in the suburbs, in the statewide races for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general but also in the state House races what will determine whether Democrats keep control of the state Legislature.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
September 14 editorial cartoons
Cartoons Sunday’s political cartoons include RFK Jr on the hook, the destruction of discourse, and more
-
Air strikes in the Caribbean: Trump’s murky narco-war
Talking Point Drug cartels ‘don’t follow Marquess of Queensberry Rules’, but US military air strikes on speedboats rely on strained interpretation of ‘invasion’
-
Crossword: September 14, 2025
The Week's daily crossword puzzle
-
Brazil’s Bolsonaro sentenced to 27 years for coup attempt
Speed Read Bolsonaro was convicted of attempting to stay in power following his 2022 election loss
-
House posts lewd Epstein note attributed to Trump
Speed Read The estate of Jeffrey Epstein turned over the infamous 2003 birthday note from President Donald Trump
-
Supreme Court allows 'roving' race-tied ICE raids
Speed Read The court paused a federal judge's order barring agents from detaining suspected undocumented immigrants in LA based on race
-
Voting: Trump's ominous war on mail ballots
Feature Donald Trump wants to sign an executive order banning mail-in ballots for the 2026 midterms
-
South Korea to fetch workers detained in Georgia raid
Speed Read More than 300 South Korean workers detained in an immigration raid at a Hyundai plant will be released
-
DC sues Trump to end Guard 'occupation'
Speed Read D.C. Attorney General Brian Schwalb argues that the unsolicited military presence violates the law
-
RFK Jr. faces bipartisan heat in Senate hearing
Speed Read The health secretary defended his leadership amid CDC turmoil and deflected questions about the restricted availability of vaccines
-
White House defends boat strike as legal doubts mount
Speed Read Experts say there was no legal justification for killing 11 alleged drug-traffickers