Why House Republicans might shut down the government

There’s talk — again — of a looming government shutdown. The Wall Street Journal reported that House Republicans returned to work this week “signaling they are ready to use tougher tactics to extract concessions” on the federal budget. Without a budget deal by October 1, there’s a real possibility the federal government will end up “furloughing hundreds of thousands of federal workers and closing national parks” though some “critical services” are expected to remain operational.

Also again: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s job might be on the line with this showdown. He won the job only by agreeing to a process that lets conservatives call a “quick vote” to replace him, the Associated Press reported. “That threat of an abrupt ouster hovers over McCarthy’s every move, especially now.” Indeed, Rep. Matt Gaetz has hinted that he may force that vote if McCarthy makes too many compromises with Democrats on a budget deal. "If Kevin McCarthy stands in our way,” Gaetz said during a radio appearance, “he may not have the job long."

One new wrinkle: McCarthy might try to buy off House conservatives by formally launching the long-expected impeachment inquiry against President Biden. McCarthy on Tuesday announced the impeachment effort, NBC News, “amid pressure from right-wing Republicans” who are pushing back against a short-term funding bill to avoid a shutdown. 

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'Particularly messy'

"We should not be surprised by the next government shutdown," Kevin Kosar wrote for The Hill. Government is divided between House Republicans and Democrats who hold the Senate and White House: Only one of 10 previous shutdowns happened when one party controlled all three branches. But maybe we should hate that shutdowns have become so regular. “Until about 40 years ago, America did not have government shutdowns.” Now, however, “the divide is particularly messy.”

The GOP’s right-wing flank has a range of demands, Li Zhou reported for Vox. They want to restart construction of Donald Trump’s border wall, rein in funding for Ukraine and crack down on “woke” initiatives in the military, among other desires. But “the House GOP isn’t on the same page” about all those demands, and “they won’t be warmly received in the Democrat-controlled Senate.”

Which is why McCarthy is pivoting to impeachment, Jackie Calmes wrote at the Los Angeles Times. The speaker is pulling a “bread and circuses” routine in order to convince recalcitrant right-wingers not to shut down the government. “If we shut down, all of government shuts down — investigations and everything else,” McCarthy told Fox News. These are the things that happen “when a ‘leader’ feels beholden to anti-government zealots” to keep his job. 

No help from Mitch

McCarthy probably can’t expect much help from another notable Republican — Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Hayes Brown at NBC News reported that McConnell isn’t interested in trying to slash funding levels that Democrats and Republicans agreed to back during spring’s debt ceiling crisis. The effort by House Republicans to reduce spending from those levels is “not going to be replicated in the Senate,” McConnell said. Brown’s take: “Senate Republicans are doing what’s best for Senate Republicans, rather than what might help bail out the speaker.”

But a shutdown might not be best for House Republicans, either. Politico reported that former Rep. Eric Cantor — who was in Republican leadership during the 2013 shutdown — is warning against a GOP-made crisis. “I think that politically, that’s not a winner,” Cantor said. That will especially be true unless Republicans coalesce around “single, clearly defined objective.” Right now there are too many demands — impeachment, spending, Ukraine — in play. “In any of those cases, where could there be a win?” Cantor asked. “I’m not sure.”

Ultimately, the shutdown and impeachment efforts both come down to McCarthy’s choices about “how far to go to satisfy Republican hardliners,” Bloomberg reported. He "might have to go through at least a little bit of a shutdown if for no other reason to establish some bona fides with the conservative wing,” one observer said. McCarthy, though, expressed confidence to reporters: “We are going to get our work done.”