Is Biden losing Black voters?
The prospect has Democrats nervous about 2024
![black voters](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/rh3w5V4Vmm6XYnvBLkkPSg-415-80.jpg)
Black and Latino voters have long been stalwart Democratic Party voters. Is that still the case? Maybe not. President Biden is "underperforming among nonwhite voters" in a series of polls, The New York Times reported. Among those voters, Biden leads Donald Trump — the likely GOP nominee — by an average of 53 to 28 percent. That might sound like a lot, but Biden won 70 percent of those voters in 2020. That shift could make a critical difference in the 2024 election.
"Black voters played a large role in rescuing Biden's struggling 2020 presidential campaign in the South Carolina primary," Reuters reported. But there have long been signs of dissatisfaction since he arrived in the White House. Democrats in Congress failed to get voting protections or police reforms passed while they held control, leading some Black voters to "lose faith" in the party. "They don't follow through," one voter told Reuters about Democrats.
The latest poll numbers are part of a trend, The Washington Post reported. Black voter turnout dropped 10 percentage points between the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections. That has Democrats alarmed heading into 2024: Biden's victory in 2020 depended on narrow wins in swing states like Georgia and Wisconsin, after all. "Democratic activists are cautioning that the party can't afford to let support from Black voters slip."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
![https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516.jpg](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516-320-80.jpg)
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Indifferent voters?
"Democrats have grown increasingly identified with policies and rhetoric that appeals to college-educated voters, who are disproportionately white," Jonathan Chait wrote at New York. It's difficult for Dems to conceive that "Donald Trump, of all people, is going to register gains among racial minorities," but there really is a risk that Black voters and other minorities "will vote for the opposing party." The shift away from Biden is easier to understand if you realize that nonwhite voters "are less liberal than the party's white voters, not more liberal."
"Voters are in a sour mood about all politicians," Juan Williams wrote for The Hill. The good news for Democrats is that Black voters still rank Biden "more highly than Trump." But Black voters lived through the Barack Obama era, when promises of "hope and change" didn't do much to change problems with police brutality and high poverty rates in their community. The result is that those voters have "little reason to think any politician, be it Obama or Biden, will rescue them."
Black voters won't necessarily become Republican voters, Philip Bump wrote in The Washington Post. "It may be that those potential voters simply don't vote at all." And voters who are indifferent to Biden aren't necessarily going to become Trump fans. That may not matter: If Trump can't flip Black voters he'll be happy if they decide to stay home rather than vote for Biden. Trump would love to have those votes, but he "would not complain loudly if Black turnout was down substantially next year."
A more potent message
"Democrats are stressing the need to appeal early to Black voters," The Hill reported. There is a consensus among party strategists that they'll need more than "an anti-Trump message to inspire and motivate a diverse electorate." That's why some Democrats are moving now to talk up Biden's record: Black unemployment has fallen, investment in historically Black colleges and universities is up, and Biden nominated the Supreme Court's first Black woman justice, Ketanji Brown Jackson. But it's not clear those efforts have moved the needle. "Black voters like Joe Biden," said one observer. "They like him, but they are still frustrated."
Biden may not have much choice but to rely on anti-Trump messaging then, The New York Times reported. "My dad used to say: 'Joey, don't compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative,'" the president has said frequently. And the White House hopes that some of its initiatives to reduce student loan debt and address racial disparities in home appraisals and maternal mortality will have an effect. Said one administration official: "I do believe when the rubber hits the road, people will pay more attention to these dramatic investments in their quality of life."
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Joel Mathis is a writer with 30 years of newspaper and online journalism experience. His work also regularly appears in National Geographic and The Kansas City Star. His awards include best online commentary at the Online News Association and (twice) at the City and Regional Magazine Association.
-
Red Speedo: a 'darkly comic' doping drama
The Week Recommends Lucas Hnath's play stars Finn Cole as a 'reptilian' swimmer determined to win at all costs
By Irenie Forshaw, The Week UK Published
-
One Aldwych: where London's creative spirit takes centre stage
The Week Recommends This five-star Covent Garden hotel is the epitome of elegant independence
By Julia O'Driscoll, The Week UK Published
-
Charlotte Dujardin and equestrianism's dark side
In the Spotlight Olympic gold medallist and dressage star's suspension over horse whipping brings abuse in horse sports back into the spotlight
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
What has Kamala Harris done as vice president?
In Depth It's not uncommon for the second-in-command to struggle to prove themselves in a role largely defined by behind-the-scenes work
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
How Black organizations quickly pivoted and mobilized for Kamala Harris
In the spotlight Harris has a shot at being the first Black woman to lead the Democratic ticket
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
ICJ ruling: will 'damning verdict' stop Netanyahu?
Talking Point The UN's top court has ruled Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories breaks international law
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
'Spare us the charade'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Anya Jaremko-Greenwold, The Week US Published
-
Harris clinches Democratic support, raises $81M
Speed Read President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid and endorsed her as his replacement
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
The attack on Donald Trump
Opinion We've seen this kind of shooter before
By Susan Caskie Published
-
How Biden's enablers may have delayed his bowing out
Talking Points Joe Biden's inner circle faces calls for a reckoning for allegedly shielding the president — and the public — from questions of aging and electoral viability
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Biden ends reelection bid, endorses Harris
Speed Read The sitting president gave his VP full support to replace him atop the Democratic ticket
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published