Shut NATO's door to Ukraine — permanently
The Western alliance bears some of the blame for the war


Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine has sparked a heated debate about NATO that boiled over into the Senate last week. Some argue that NATO's eastward expansion precipitated the conflict by threatening Russian security. Others retort that because the alliance is purely defensive, the only "threat" it posed was to Russian President Vladimir Putin's irredentist aspirations.
The latter argument is flawed. Whether or not NATO threatened Russia, Putin believed it did, and this belief informed his decision to invade. Moreover, Putin's concerns were predictable, and the war might have been averted had Washington taken them seriously.
In the run-up to the invasion, the White House refused to discuss NATO expansion with Moscow. Senior official Derek Chollet defended the refusal. "NATO is a defensive alliance. NATO is not a threat to Russia," he said – implying the issue was none of Russia's business.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Making the same point, Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to NATO from 2009-2013, said the organization "is a defensive alliance, not just in theory; it is, in fact, in practice, a defensive alliance."
But years before, in 1999, Daalder authored a report reflecting on "NATO's evolution from a collective defense alliance to an organization primarily concerned with managing crises." He pondered the use-of-force conditions for this new, evolved NATO: "The traditional criterion – self-defense against armed attack on any member's home territory…is too narrow."
Daalder observed that NATO had used military force in Bosnia and Kosovo "even though the Article 5 collective defense commitment was not directly at stake." He said there was "no doubt" the alliance could initiate force and concluded that NATO should emphasize "its willingness in principle to engage in the full spectrum of possible military missions." A few weeks later, NATO began bombing Serbia to punish human rights violations.
In 2011, NATO again used military force outside the purview of Article 5, this time against Libya. The NATO-enforced no-fly zone enjoyed U.N. backing, but morphed into a regime change operation. "The people of Libya have gotten rid of a dictator," then-Vice President Biden proclaimed hours after Moammar Gadhafi, the Libyan leader, was killed. "NATO got it right…This is more the prescription for how to deal with the world as we go forward."
Even if NATO were a "defensive alliance," Ukraine's accession would have implicated Russian security. Before the invasion, Putin clarified why he thought Ukraine in NATO would pose an imminent threat: Since the West does not recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea, he reasoned, any conflict there might be seen as a Russian attack on Ukraine, triggering Article 5.
These were not the rantings of a "mad man." In 2008, Ambassador to Russia and current CIA Director William Burns reported that "Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin)." In two and a half years of talking to hardliners, liberals, and everyone in between, Burns was unable "to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests."
Back in Washington, intelligence analyst Fiona Hill advised President George W. Bush not to invite Ukraine into NATO. "So, you're telling me you're opposed to freedom and democracy," Vice President Dick Cheney snapped.
Bush sided with Cheney. At the Bucharest NATO Summit in 2008, Bush pressured reluctant European leaders to welcome Ukraine into the Membership Action Plan (MAP) — the program that prepares nations for membership. NATO didn't go that far, but did declare that Ukraine would one day join the alliance. Afterwards Putin warned, not for the first time, that Moscow would view Ukraine in NATO as a "direct threat."
Unable to turn Ukraine into a NATO member, the U.S. turned it into a NATO outpost, delivering billions in military assistance, conducting joint military exercises, running clandestine paramilitary training programs, swapping intelligence, and even participating in cyber operations against the Russian government. The U.S. created the worst of all possible worlds for Ukraine – a provocative NATO proxy on Russia's doorstep, but without NATO's security umbrella.
Putin is culpable for his criminal attack on Ukraine. But the prospect of Ukraine in NATO heightened Moscow's threat perception and made a geopolitical explosion more likely. That the U.S. refused to discuss the issue with Russia is especially mystifying given that Western leaders privately told Kyiv "you're not going to be a NATO member." A more rational diplomatic strategy would have been to advertise that NATO won't bring Ukraine into the MAP unless and until Russia attacked.
We'll never know whether serious diplomacy could have averted the war, but it may yet resolve the crisis. The Biden administration should work with European allies to broker a settlement that makes Ukraine a neutral state. Formal neutrality is far better than being a battleground of great powers — and cuts both ways. If Russia withdraws all military forces and stops interfering with its smaller neighbor, NATO's door should stay closed to Ukraine.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Andrew Day is a Foreign Policy Researcher for the Nonzero Foundation. He has a PhD in political science from Northwestern University and currently lives in Prague.
-
Kaja Kallas: the EU's new chief diplomat shaping the future of European defense
In the Spotlight Former Estonian Prime Minister's status as an uncompromising Russia hawk has gone from liability to strength
By David Faris Published
-
7 ways to drink spectacularly across the United States this spring
The Week Recommends A bar for every springtime occasion
By Scott Hocker, The Week US Published
-
Test flight of orbital rocket from Europe explodes
Speed Read Isar Aerospace conducted the first test flight of the Spectrum orbital rocket, which crashed after takeoff
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Is the 'coalition of the willing' going to work?
Today's Big Question PM's proposal for UK/French-led peacekeeping force in Ukraine provokes 'hostility' in Moscow and 'derision' in Washington
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Russia's spies: skulduggery in Great Yarmouth
In the Spotlight 'Amateurish' spy ring in Norfolk seaside town exposes the decline of Russian intelligence
By The Week UK Published
-
Can Ukraine make peace with Trump in Saudi Arabia?
Talking Point Zelenskyy and his team must somehow navigate the gap between US president's 'demands and threats'
By The Week UK Published
-
Ukraine: where do Trump's loyalties really lie?
Today's Big Question 'Extraordinary pivot' by US president – driven by personal, ideological and strategic factors – has 'upended decades of hawkish foreign policy toward Russia'
By Elliott Goat, The Week UK Published
-
Is Europe's defence too reliant on the US?
Today's Big Question As the UK and EU plan to 're-arm', how easy will it be to disentangle from US equipment and support?
By Elliott Goat, The Week UK Published
-
What will Trump-Putin Ukraine peace deal look like?
Today's Big Question US president 'blindsides' European and UK leaders, indicating Ukraine must concede seized territory and forget about Nato membership
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Cuba's mercenaries fighting against Ukraine
The Explainer Young men lured by high salaries and Russian citizenship to enlist for a year are now trapped on front lines of war indefinitely
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Ukraine-Russia: are both sides readying for nuclear war?
Today's Big Question Putin changes doctrine to lower threshold for atomic weapons after Ukraine strikes with Western missiles
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published