What does Omicron mean for 2022?

Omicron has rapidly become the dominant strain of Covid-19 in South Africa and is, according to experts, going to overtake other variants in the UK just as Christmas celebrations get under way.

Discovered just two weeks ago, the spread of the new strain has been very rapid. In South Africa, where Omicron was first discovered, cases have “surged by 255% in the past seven days”, The Guardian said, while “Africa currently accounts for 46% of reported Omicron cases globally”.

In the UK, there have been 568 confirmed cases since the new strain was first detected. But Health Secretary Sajid Javid told MPs this week that the true number of infections could be close to 10,000, around 20 times higher than the official total.

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So with the spread prompting many countries to introduce new restrictions, what does the spread of Omicron mean for the coming year?

Evolving virus

Maria Van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization’s Covid-19 technical lead, has warned that while data appears to show that most patients have presented with a mild form of Covid-19, assuming the virus presents only in a mild form is “very dangerous”.

Speaking to New Scientist, she said that we have so far “seen the full spectrum of severity with the variant”, adding: “People will die from it.”

If data shows that Omicron is more transmissible than previous forms, then “there will be more cases, more hospitalisations and more deaths”, she warned.

However, there may be some good news for those who have been vaccinated already.

Van Kerkhove said that vaccines should offer a high level of protection against serious illness, explaining that she “expects to see a significant reduction in hospitalisations and deaths in those who are vaccinated”. But she also added that not enough was being done to prevent transmission.

“The virus will evolve because we’re not doing enough to prevent its transmission,” she told the magazine. “I don’t mean lockdowns, but social distancing, mask wearing, working from home and improving ventilation. All the things we’ve figured out that help.

“What countries do in the next week to 10 weeks completely influences what happens with omicron. 2022 will unfold how we allow it to.”

Critical phase

The “acute” phase of the pandemic should end in 2022, according to Microsoft founder Bill Gates, a longstanding advocate of pandemic preparedness and co-chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

“It might be foolish to make another prediction, but I think the acute phase of the pandemic will come to a close some time in 2022,” the billionaire technology entrepreneur wrote on his GatesNotes blog this week.

The emergence of new variants, such as Delta, has delayed the end of the pandemic, as have “challenges with vaccine uptake”, he continued.

“There’s no question that the Omicron variant is concerning,” said Gates. But experts’ increasing ability to identify new variants, as well as global vaccine rollouts, mean the disease should become “endemic” by the end of next year, he added.

“In a couple years, my hope is that the only time you will really have to think about the virus is when you get your joint Covid and flu vaccine every fall.”

2022 disruption

Despite Gates’s optimistic outlook, more global disruption is likely during the beginning of the new year, according to Tyler Cowen, a professor of economics at George Mason University in Virginia, US.

Writing for Bloomberg, he warned that Omicron infections are projected to “peak in many nations in January or February”, adding that it is “far too soon for any specially designed booster to have an effect”.

Meanwhile, he warned, “slowness in addressing the pandemic to date” suggests “there will hardly be enough time to make many significant policy changes at all”.

Predicting school closures, further pressure on healthcare systems and even short-term lockdowns, Cowen added that these issues will likely be “temporary” as “an omicron that arrives quickly may fade quickly as well”.

But “even the relatively positive scenarios will create major new problems early in 2022”, he added.