What happens if prison places run out?
Governors’ association says inmates might have to be released early as jail population grows

A free daily digest of the biggest news stories of the day - and the best features from our website
Thank you for signing up to TheWeek. You will receive a verification email shortly.
There was a problem. Please refresh the page and try again.
The number of people behind bars in England and Wales is expected to increase by nearly 20,000 over the next five years, according to newly published government projections.
The total currently stands at around 79,500 prisoners, after dipping during the pandemic, but the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has predicted that the tally will grow to 98,500 by March 2026.
The numbers of jailed men, women and children aged 15 to 17 are all expected to increase.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Behind the extra demand
The surge in prisoners is “largely a result” of the extra 23,400 police officers due to be recruited, which is likely to increase charge volumes, said the MoJ.
The estimate also takes into account the impact of the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill going through Parliament. The proposed legislation includes “plans to introduce tougher sentences for the worst crimes, while also stopping the automatic early release from prison of serious and violent sexual offenders”, explained Sky News.
In the short-term, inmate numbers are expected to rise as courts deal with the backlog of trials delayed by Covid-19 restrictions, although the MoJ pointed to “uncertainty” around the speed of recovery of the criminal justice system and the projections generally.
Record prison-building programme
The government pledged in last month’s spending review to “continue the biggest prison-building programme in more than a century”, with £3.8bn in funding to deliver 20,000 additional prison places by the mid-2020s.
Justice Secretary Dominic Raab has said the plans include “six state-of-the-art prisons”, as well as the expansion of other sites across the country.
But MPs on the Commons’ Public Accounts Committee have previously expressed concern about the department’s ability to meet rising demand. In a report published last year, the committee noted that despite earlier promises to create 10,000 new-for-old prison places by 2020, just 206 new places had been delivered.
Owing to a “staggering backlog” of maintenance work that would cost more than £900m to address, 500 prison places were being taken “permanently out of action” every year due to their poor condition, the MPs added.
‘Ramping up a stressed system’
The Prison Governors’ Association wrote to Raab earlier this month warning that ministers would have to consider releasing inmates early “because they will run out of places by 2023”, reported The Telegraph.
The association’s president, Andrea Albutt, said the government’s planned expansion would not be ready in time to handle the expected influx of criminals. And existing plans to increase the number of inmates sharing cells and to provide temporary accommodation would also not be enough, she said.
The current prison population is “only 1,500 short of the operational capacity of 80,852”, said The Telegraph. This maximum capacity allows for “doubling up” in up to 60% of the single cells in the most crowded facilities.
“They are going to have to look at policies that don’t put people in prison,” suggested Albutt. “The alternatives are releasing people earlier or more court diversion schemes of offenders away from custody.”
She warned that violence, mental health illness and self-harm were already on the rise in UK jails. “If we start ramping up a stressed system by stuffing in more people, it could potentially implode, especially as we cannot recruit enough staff,” she said.
An MoJ spokesperson insisted that the prison population was carefully monitored and that the department would adjust plans “when necessary to ensure that we will always have sufficient capacity”.
Continue reading for free
We hope you're enjoying The Week's refreshingly open-minded journalism.
Subscribed to The Week? Register your account with the same email as your subscription.
Sign up to our 10 Things You Need to Know Today newsletter
A free daily digest of the biggest news stories of the day - and the best features from our website
-
Should you fire your financial adviser? 4 signs it's time to say goodbye.
The Explainer Breakups are never fun, but you have to protect your wallet
By Becca Stanek Published
-
The daily gossip: Man arrested in connection with shooting of Tupac Shakur, an OceanGate movie is in the works, and more
Feature The daily gossip: September 29, 2023
By Brendan Morrow Published
-
What to expect from an El Niño winter
The Explainer Things might be different thanks to this well-known weather phenomenon
By Devika Rao Published
-
The most famous prison breaks of all time
The Explainer Many people have escaped from behind bars over the decades
By Justin Klawans Published
-
Daniel Khalife escape: how secure are UK prisons?
Today's Big Question MPs and experts blame austerity cuts for chronic understaffing, overcrowding and inexperienced guards
By Harriet Marsden Published
-
Daniel Abed Khalife: how did terror suspect escape from Wandsworth prison?
Today's Big Question ‘Gob-smacking’ events raise urgent questions about state of UK’s criminal justice system
By Julia O'Driscoll Published
-
Andrew Malkinson: why cleared inmates have to pay back prisons from compensation
feature Cost of ‘bed and board’ in jail may be deducted from payouts for wrongful imprisonments
By Keumars Afifi-Sabet Published
-
Colin Pitchfork: justice secretary attempts to halt killer’s release
Speed Read The double child-murderer has been in and out of prison following a series of parole decisions
By Rebekah Evans Published
-
What is going on in women’s prisons?
feature Inmate numbers and self-harm cases are rising despite government pledge to improve conditions
By The Week Staff Published
-
Inside FCI Tallahassee: the low-security prison where Ghislaine Maxwell can ‘teach yoga and bake’
In Depth Former socialite convicted of trafficking underage girls not eligible for release until 2037
By The Week Staff Published
-
Dominic Raab’s ‘power of veto’ for dangerous criminals explained
In Depth Ministers want to be in charge of changing release dates of the most high-risk offenders
By The Week Staff Published