Five scenarios facing Boris Johnson after ‘bombshell’ resignations

It was “business as usual” for the prime minister today despite the resignation of two high-profile ministers, a member of his Cabinet has said.

“He’s got a job to do,” said Jacob Rees-Mogg after Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Savid Javid quit within ten minutes of one another last night.

Johnson “scrambled to fill the gaps on the front bench” even as further resignations from junior government positions were announced, said The Telegraph. One of the latest to go is Will Quince, an education minister who was sent out to defend the prime minister’s actions in the Chris Pincher affair on television with what he said was “inaccurate” information.

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Johnson has faced a day of grilling from fellow MPs, appearing at Prime Minister’s Questions and then in front of the Commons Liaison Committee this afternoon. Here are five things that might happen next.

Carry on regardless

There has been “no indication” from Johnson or his allies that he intends to step down, said The Telegraph. The “speedy” Cabinet reshuffle carried out in the hours after Sunak and Javid’s resignations saw Nadhim Zahawi named as chancellor, Michelle Donelan moved into his role as education secretary and Steve Barclay appointed health secretary.

Johnson is to “come out fighting” after the “botched attempt to spark a Cabinet coup”, said the Daily Express. The PM is said to be in a “resolute and determined” mood, said the paper, and has told allies that the “failed bid to force him out of Downing Street marked a ‘moment of liberation’ that will allow his Government to pursue a true-blue Tory agenda to win the next general election”.

‘Game over’

Johnson has “lost the confidence of his party and the country”, said The Times in a leader article today. “For the good of the country, he should go.” The paper said it is “game over” for the prime minister, who has no “conceivable chance” of recovering his authority “to provide the effective leadership that the country needs at a time of acute national crisis”.

Lord Frost, who resigned as Brexit minister in December, echoed The Times in a statement today. He said the “developments of the last week show there is no chance of the prime minister either putting in place the necessary change of approach to running a government or establishing a new policy direction”.

Backbench rebellion

The resignations have made life “incredibly difficult” for Johnson and “sparked open war within the Conservative Party”, said Beth Rigby at Sky News. It has also added two people to the backbenches “who want him gone” and can “mobilise MPs”.

Rigby suggested backbenchers might “take matters into their hands”. Under current rules, a second vote of confidence cannot be held for another 11 months. However, the 1922 Committee, which is due to elect a new chairperson, could change its rules to allow a second confidence vote in Johnson’s leadership to force him out.

“Things are already unpleasant and could become really ugly in the coming days,” said Rigby.

General election

For Johnson to “survive to fight another general election” would require a “transformation” in his standing “and/or a significant improvement in the UK’s economic situation, neither of which looks at all likely right now”, said Stephen Bush in the Financial Times.

The next general election is currently due to take place in May 2024, but Labour’s Keir Starmer has called for one in a matter of weeks, claiming that the current government is “collapsing”.

Speaking to LBC last Friday, Johnson appeared to rule out an early election. However, earlier that week, The Times reported that the Conservatives had “war-gamed a snap election” should Starmer be forced to quit as Labour leader over the police investigation into the “beergate” allegations, the outcome of which is expected soon. Labour has consistently led the polls this year, but Starmer’s personal ratings “suggest that voters are yet to warm” to him, said the paper.

Further big-name resignations

Ministers “loyal” to Johnson “rallied round him” after Tuesday night’s resignations, said City A.M. He still “retains the support” of the likes of Justice Secretary Dominic Raab, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Home Secretary Priti Patel.

But, said The Independent, the “disintegration of Boris Johnson’s government is both broad and deep”. Several junior ministers have “followed the chancellor and the health secretary out of the door”, from “PPSes to government trade envoys, to ministers of state, under-secretaries of state”.

After the “bombshell” resignations, the prime minister’s “fate may rest on whether other members of his cabinet stand by him”, said The New York Times. While a number of them have remained loyal, “there was doubt about some others, and their words and actions will be watched closely”, said the paper.

It suggested that Johnson won the no-confidence vote last month in “large part because there were no obvious successors to him”, but “an unravelling cabinet could bring such a figure to the stage”.