The US midterm elections failed to deliver the much-touted “red wave” for the Republicans, but they set the stage for an almighty showdown for the party’s presidential nomination in two years’ time.
In one corner is Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor who defied the odds to win another term with a decisive victory over his Democratic rival.
By far the biggest winner of the 2022 election cycle for the GOP, DeSantis also made historic gains among the Hispanic vote and even swept the historically Democratic Miami-Dade county – demonstrating his ability to “rewrite the political map” as he told jubilant supporters.
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In the other corner is Donald Trump. The Times said the former president “believed that he would be able to carry the momentum of a successful night on Tuesday into his own presidential announcement, but the failure of many candidates has put him on the defensive”.
In a sign the political winds may have shifted following last Tuesday’s results, David Urban, a Trump adviser and long-time ally, told The Washington Post: “It is clear the centre of gravity of the Republican party is in the state of Florida, and I don’t mean Mar-a-Lago” – the name of Trump’s residence in the state.
Are they really rivals?
“Once a close ally” of Trump’s, DeSantis is “now seemingly an arch-rival for a presidential run in 2024”, said The Guardian.
In a diatribe on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump called DeSantis “an average REPUBLICAN Governor with great Public Relations” who was “politically dead, losing in a landslide”, before he reached out to the then president to rescue his first run for governor. Trump accused DeSantis of disloyalty for not ruling out a 2024 run and also went after the once-loyal Murdoch press in the US for being “all in for Governor Ron DeSanctimonious”.
“It marked the beginning of what looks to be the GOP’s second civil war in six years,” said The New Republic.
“DeSantis, for his part, has long praised Trump and mimicked his style, but has notably declined to put aside his own White House ambitions”, said AP. Still basking in his win, he has so far not risen to take the bait.
The former navy lawyer and congressman not only boasts the charisma and telegenic family required of all presidential candidates, he also promises generational change. At 44, he would be similar in age to John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama when they ran for the White House, a sharp contrast from the 76-year-old Trump or Joe Biden, who is turning 80 this month.
How do their records compare?
“Crucially, DeSantis could sell himself as Trump 2.0, an upgrade committed to the same ‘America first’ policy agenda, media sparring and liberal-baiting (he recently flew Venezuelan migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard) but without the liability of multiple federal, state and congressional investigations” argued The Guardian.
Speaking to The Hill, Peter Rough, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute think-tank with a focus on Europe, said: “Ron DeSantis may be even more dangerous than Trump because he can actually implement and execute his policies, unlike DJT [Donald J Trump]. ‘Trump but with a brain,’ they said last night on the [German] prime-time talk show I was on.”
A quick look at his record as governor reveals how he would likely continue Trump’s divisive culture war agenda. “DeSantis signed Florida’s ‘Don’t Say Gay’ law, which prevents teachers from talking about LGBTQ+ issues or people; a bill banning transgender women and girls from participating in school sports; and the Stop Woke Act, which prohibits businesses from requiring certain employee trainings on racial diversity. He eschewed Covid-19 shutdowns and vaccine mandates… and sent migrants to Martha’s Vineyard in an effort to score political points against the Biden administration’s border policies”, listed Vox.
Voters got a taste of this on election night when he channelled Winston Churchill in his victory speech: “We fight the woke in the legislature. We fight the woke in the schools. We fight the woke in the corporations. We will never, ever surrender to the woke mob. Florida is where woke goes to die,” he told supporters.
“You might vehemently disagree with much of what he says and does. You might even hate the guy,” argued The Washington Post’s Jim Geraghty, but he “would be a Republican nominee without Donald Trump’s worst and most destructive impulses and habits. The governor certainly doesn’t shy from a scrap, but he fights for policies, not to prosecute vendettas.”
Who will win?
“Declaring so early, two years before the 2024 election, is seen as an effort by Trump to deter potential Republican rivals,” said The Telegraph, but unlike other would-be Republican challengers, DeSantis has not ruled out running if Trump stands.
“There’s obvious discontent with Trump among the party establishment,” said Vox and “DeSantis may be everything the Republican Party is looking for and more. But the real question is whether the party can successfully distance itself from Trump and anoint DeSantis in his stead,” said the news site.
Recent polls suggest the Florida governor still has a way to go to win over a Republican base that is still largely in thrall to Trump. A Morning Consult poll conducted just before the midterms found 48% of potential Republican primary voters would back Trump, down 9% since August but still way above the 26% who would back DeSantis.
Importantly, said The New Republic: “Trump is a diminished figure. Unlike in 2016, when he effortlessly cast aside a host of goons, he also appears to be genuinely rattled by DeSantis. He should still be considered the favourite for the Republican presidential nomination, but it is, for the first time in six years, possible to imagine other scenarios. He seems beatable.”
“Trump versus DeSantis is a fight between two men with messiah complexes who want us to believe each is the leader America needs,” said NBC News. “Neither is, and if we’re lucky, the battle that their outsize egos unleash will ruin them both long before Election Day 2024.”
