PM ‘must persuade Merkel he's not bluffing about leaving EU'

David Davis, the leading Tory eurosceptic and former Minister for Europe, warned David Cameron this morning that he must convince German Chancellor Angela Merkel that the UK threat to leave the EU is genuine.

“He has got to persuade her the prospect of us leaving is real. It’s not just sabre-rattling,” Davis told Radio 4’s Today programme. “Cameron doesn’t want us to leave but he may face the possibility that the people will tell us to leave.”

The Times reports that Merkel – who, like Cameron, leads a centre-right party - is sympathetic to curbs on benefits to limit “benefit tourism” inside the EU. But Davis said benefit changes will not by themselves be enough to curb immigration to the UK from the rest of Europe.

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Merkel is in London today to discuss wider issues ahead of a G7 summit in Germany in June, including the EU’s response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation threat to the Ukraine. The elephant in the room at the Merkel-Cameron talks is Ukip’s threat to the Tories’ hopes of winning a Commons majority in the general election on 7 May.

Cameron has gained a reputation for making rash empty promises that he cannot fulfill, including the pledge of a “no ifs, no buts” clampdown on immigration. He infuriated Tory eurosceptics in November by floating the idea of putting an emergency break – or a cap - on EU immigration but then bowing to pressure from Merkel to drop the idea from a keynote speech.

Cameron was at it again on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show at the weekend when he promised “full-on” treaty changes to satisfy the eurosceptics and hinted that he could bring forward the promised in-out referendum from 2017 to 2016.

Merkel does not wish to derail Cameron’s campaign wagon. She will try to avoid saying anything that will show Cameron’s promises are at best pie in the sky or, at worst, reak of the powerful odour of mendacity (to quote from Cat on a Hot Tin Roof).

Meanwhile, Merkel has failed to include a meeting with Ed Miliband in her itinerary for today’s meeting (she’s going to a German exhibition at the British Museum instead).

The Daily Telegraph suggests this a deliberate snub to the Labour leader: more likely, she does not want to interfere in the election. After all, when it comes to Europe, Miliband would be a lot easier to deal with than Cameron.