What happens after Israel and Hamas swap captives?

For the first time in more than a month of intense fighting across southern Israel and much of the isolated Gaza Strip, Israeli and Palestinian officials have agreed to a temporary pause in the Israel-Hamas war that's already claimed thousands of lives, even as it threatens to expand across the region. This first official cease-fire, announced on Tuesday, will see the release of dozens of Israelis held captive by Hamas since the group attacked multiple Israeli communities on Oct. 7, killing some 1,200 people before retreating back to Gaza with an estimated 240 prisoners. In exchange, Israel will not only pause its intense aerial bombardment and ground invasion of the densely packed Gaza Strip, but will release 150 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, the majority of whom are teenage boys, according to Al Jazeera. 

While the four-day cessation of violence is itself a significant milestone in this latest chapter of a bloody conflict stretching back decades, the agreement to release Israeli hostages — one of Israel's major stated justifications for its bombardment of Gaza — in exchange for jailed Palestinians is particularly notable. Though Israel has exchanged prisoners for captive soldiers in the past, the sheer ferocity and scale of this current conflagration, and the stakes involved, make this exchange all the more significant. With the clock ticking down to the end of this negotiated pause, will this much sought-after captive swap change Israel and Hamas' calculus moving forward? 

What the commentators said

Calling the Israeli hostages in Hamas captivity the "most valuable asset [Hamas] has ever held," Haaretz columnist Gideon Levy argued in late October that it has "never occurred to Israel to release prisoners voluntarily, out of generosity, in an attempt to clear the air and express some goodwill," and has never understood the "central place prisoners have in the Palestinian ethos."

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By "forcing Israel into talks that have now led to the release of prisoners," Hamas has "already scored points" among Palestinians and the Arab public as a whole, agreed Jack Khoury for the same publication. If the underlying conflict remains true after this current spate of violence abides, "Israel will continue to invade, destroy and arrest" while Palestinians will continue to agitate for further prisoner releases, "if not through negotiations then by the kind of force that reached monstrous proportions on Oct. 7."

The captive exchange could result in a "real crescendo of pressure in Israel to continue with getting deals for the rest of the hostages," Daniel Levy, advisor to former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, told The Wall Street Journal. At the same time, some in Israel have pushed back on the release of Palestinian prisoners. Speaking with Israeli Army Radio, Eliyahu Liebman, whose son is one of the Israeli captives currently held in Gaza, exclaimed that "those terrorists who will be released in such a horrible and dubious deal is more blood on the hands of this government and the security forces." According to Haaretz, none of the prisoners slated to be exchanged have been convicted of murder, and while many of them have associations with a host of militant groups, "many [...] acted on their own, and a large number were arrested but not tried."

Israel's other stated goal of eradicating Hamas in the Gaza Strip should remain the war's "overriding objective," argued the right-leaning Jerusalem Post editorial board. However, that should go "hand in hand with the sacred charge of obtaining the release of any hostage" whenever possible — even if it means "the unbearable stench of dealing with Hamas and enabling its murderous regime to attain some of its goals."

What next?

For as much as the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners may resonate with each respective community, both the Israeli government and Hamas leadership have stressed they have no plans to change the overall thrust of the conflict. Israel will "continue the war in order to return home all of the hostages, complete the elimination of Hamas and ensure that there will be no new threat to the State of Israel from Gaza," while Hamas affirmed its "victorious brigades and all our resistance factions" will remain in place "until the occupation and aggression are defeated" according to government statements obtained by Fox News.