Is the Gaza hostage deal a turning point in the war?

Israel and Hamas have agreed to a deal that will see the release of 50 hostages being held in Gaza, as well as a four-day pause in fighting. 

When it takes effect, it will be the first official cessation of the conflict since Hamas crossed the border into Israel on 7 October and killed 1,200 people as well as taking around 240 hostages. In exchange for the release of Israeli hostages, Palestinian prisoners in Israel will be freed and a temporary truce will allow more humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, where over 14,000 people have died. The pause in fighting is open for extension if Hamas releases more hostages.

While the deal represents a "major breakthrough" in the war, still the "question looms of what happens next to Gaza", wrote Jonathan Guyer at Vox, with Israel maintaining its joint objectives of freeing hostages and eliminating Hamas.

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What the papers said

The deal does not signify a "resolution to the war" nor does it address the "roots of the conflict", added Guyer, but it remains a "significant development that's better than nothing". He suggests that "political dynamics" shifted Israel's position towards accepting a temporary truce, having initially prioritised its mission of destroying Hamas over bringing the hostages home.

A "high-profile" campaign by the hostages' families has put pressure on the Israeli government while "international pressure" in response to the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza has also led to the acceptance of a temporary pause, said The Guardian.

The US played a "crucial role" in "shepherding" the deal across the line, said David Ignatius in The Washington Post, with Qatar "mediating", and support from Egypt on an agreement that has been in the works since October. But while "it could gradually expand to a broader de-escalation of the nightmare conflict", there is no sign of concession on Israel's "ultimate desire to destroy Hamas's political power in Gaza".

Though Israel will "face strong pressure not to resume" its operations after the truce ends, it may "not mean a permanent halt to the fight against Hamas" and it is unlikely the US will "press Israel to stop", with fears that it could "leave Hamas intact to menace Israel again", said The Economist.

The Guardian agreed that an indefinite ceasefire seems unlikely given Israel's "greater motives to return to the battlefield", while for Hamas, simply survival "as a group would represent a victory".

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been clear he expects fighting to resume, and has faced contrasting pressure from the far-right ministers in his coalition government and the Israeli public, which "overwhelmingly supports a deal to release hostages", said the Financial Times. Those ministers who voted against the deal on Tuesday said it would "not ensure the return of all the hostages and decreased the chances of destroying Hamas".

While the protests of hostages' families have become a "powerful force in Israel", the "structure of the deal could weaken Israel from various directions", said AP. The cessation will "give Hamas and its shadowy leader, Yehya Sinwar, a chance to regroup after suffering heavy losses", while pressure is likely to grow from the families of those hostages who were not released during this agreement to not "resume the offensive until their loved ones return home as well".

Even if the agreement does result in an indefinite ceasefire, Sinwar "will have little to celebrate", the AP added. Though he and the group may survive, he will "emerge to vast destruction that will take years, if not decades, to repair".

What next?

The start of the truce is set to be confirmed before the end of Thursday, but "right now, Gaza needs aid", said Guyer, with Israel set to allow in 300 trucks of aid per day during the agreement, as opposed to the daily average of 45 so far.

Once the initial agreement ends, Hamas "could seek to extend it by offering to gradually release more of the hostages", said The Guardian. But it is unclear to what extent, with the hostages remaining "Hamas's greatest leverage over Israel" and its key tool to "exploit the unavoidable tension in Israel's war plans", added The Economist.

But Israel is seemingly unlikely to allow the ceasefire to continue despite pressure, with a senior official telling The Washington Post that it cannot "allow Hamas to emerge from the tunnels, declare victory and rule over Gaza". "Toppling Hamas from power", added Ignatius, "evidently remains Israel's one non-negotiable demand".