Will California's EV mandate survive Trump, SCOTUS challenge?

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has an ambitious climate goal: Every single vehicle sold in his state in 2035 will be powered by electricity. But the state's EV mandate faces opposition both from President-elect Donald Trump and in the U.S. Supreme Court.

Congress allows the federal Environmental Protection Agency to let California set its own, stricter clean-air standards. That gives the state the authority it needs to ban the sales of gasoline-powered cars and impose its EV mandate. But that authority is now being challenged. The Supreme Court last week agreed to hear a case from oil companies arguing the "federal government exceeded its authority" by allowing California's special rules, said CalMatters. "Congress did not give California special authority to regulate greenhouse gases, mandate electric vehicles or ban new gas car sales," said Chet Thompson, president of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers. That's not the only challenge: Trump's EPA is "expected to deny or try to revoke" California's standards, CalMatters said.

"California's electric vehicle ambitions are facing a reality check," said the Los Angeles Times. Even with a state-powered push, "sales growth has stalled" for EVs. The momentum could slow even further if, as also expected, Trump pulls the federal government's tax credit for electric-powered cars. "The headwinds are fueling fresh doubts" that California can meet its goal of all-EV sales a decade from now, said the Times.

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What did the commentators say?

California's EV mandate is "on trial," The Wall Street Journal said in an editorial. Congress originally agreed to give California a carve-out on clean-air standards "because its geography and climate can exacerbate smog" in California-specific ways. That logic doesn't apply to the greenhouse gases the Golden State is trying to curb with its EV mandate: The effects of climate change "are global." That means California has "no more compelling reason" to impose standards on what kind of cars can be sold than any other state, the Journal said. "Courts may have to decide the issue."

With Trump returning to the White House, "California can cement its reputation for consistently committing to its climate policies," said the Los Angeles Times in an editorial. Indeed, the state has little choice: "Trump can do real damage by going after the states trying to deal with climate change." But the new administration's anti-climate agenda is "at odds with economic realities" — American EV sales are eight times larger than they were at the beginning of Trump's first term. California officials need to know that "environmentally responsible policy is still possible if they fight for it."

What next?

Some automakers are pushing back against California's goals, which require a third of all 2026 vehicle sales to be "zero-emission vehicles," said CNBC. That goal "looks impossible," Jack Hollis, chief operating officer of Toyota Motor North America, said in November. "Demand isn't there."

The EV push continues for now, said The Washington Post. The California Energy Commission this month approved a $1.4 billion plan to install 17,000 new EV charging stations across the state over the next four years. Electric vehicles, said Commissioner Patty Monahan, "are here to stay in the Golden State."