Five biggest political shake-ups around the world in 2023

With wars raging in Ukraine and now the Middle East, a belief in the power of the ballot box to enact change has been somewhat dented.

As two billion people prepare to go to the polls around the world in 2024, we look back at four key elections – and one coup – from each continent that have had widespread implications far beyond their respective countries.

Poland

Following Slovakia's turn towards populism with the election of pro-Russian former PM Robert Fico in September, all eyes in Europe were on October's Polish parliamentary elections. Widely acknowledged as the most important in Poland since the fall of communism, it pitted the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) – described by the former Labour Europe minister Denis MacShane in The New Europeanas "Europe's most important nationalist, right wing, anti-women, homophobic, anti-European party" – against a broad coalition led by former PM and European Council president Donald Tusk.

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Despite PiS enjoying near-total control over state institutions and mainstream media, the bitterly fought campaign delivered a clear majority for the opposition coalition, driven by a record turnout of 74%, and a huge showing from the young.

Tusk and his coalition partners still face significant challenges "repairing the civic and constitutional damage" done by eight years of PiS rule, said The Guardian, but they nevertheless have an opportunity to halt the "oppressive, authoritarian and confrontational direction of travel" that has gripped Europe in recent years.

The result in Poland was "most of all a win for representative democracy", agreed foreign policy think tank Chatham House, and should also "immediately affect the political balance of power in the EU". Given Poland's status as one of the bloc's most strategically significant member states, it will "bring a vital boost to European unity in deeply challenging times", concluded The Guardian.

Niger

In the wake of France's withdrawal from Mali in 2022 and Burkino Faso earlier in the year, July's shock military takeover in Niger felt like a watershed moment for the historic French influence in West Africa.

The toppling of President Mohamed Bazoum, widely condemned by the US, UK and EU as well as a majority of Niger's neighbours and the Africa Union, was part of the "anti-Western revolt sweeping across the Sahel", said Thomas Fazi on UnHerd.

Thousands of junta supporters taking to the streets to wave Russian flags and sing the name of Vladimir Putin was an early indication of how the coup "shifts the geopolitical influence map of Africa", said Al-Monitor. French forces began withdrawing from the country in October, after being ordered to leave by Niger's new military rulers. It came as the US formally declared that Bazoum had been removed in a military coup, "which results in officially suspending assistance" to the regime, Al Jazeera reported.

While Niger’s economic and social indicators place it at the bottom of global development indices, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank said that "its geographical position at the crossroads of North, West, and Central Africa; its mineral and oil resources; its potential for the development of renewable energies; and its strong demographic growth help explain the seemingly outsize interest of medium and large powers" in the country's future.

Thailand

In May, voters in Thailand rejected nine years of military rule in favour of the reformist opposition to deliver what the BBC described as a "political earthquake".

Move Forward's shock victory at the polls followed "a campaign pitting a young generation yearning for change against the conservative elite", who strongly opposed reform of the country's monarchy, said the Bangkok Post.

What followed was months of political deadlock. Move Forward's charismatic leader Pita Limjaroenrat was eventually forced to make way and give the runner-up populist Pheu Thai Party a chance to form the next government.

The return in August of Thaksin Shinawatra, the ousted former prime minister of Thailand and patriarch of the Pheu Thai political juggernaut, after more than 10 years in exile "added a new layer of intrigue", said CNN. 

Some suggested his return was part of a "wider arrangement with the country's powerful conservative and royalist establishment that involved a reduced jail term or possible pardon in exchange for keeping the election-winning Move Forward Party from enacting its reformist policies that targeted the heart of this establishment".

New Zealand

October's general election result saw the conservative National Party sweep to power at the head of a right-leaning coalition, after former airline executive Christopher Luxon vowed to put New Zealand "back on track".

The result marked an incredible reversal of fortune for the Labour Party and its former leader Jacinda Ardern. The former prime minister, who won a landslide just three years ago before surprisingly stepping down in January, had a "star power and brand of 'kind' politics which won her fans globally – even as her popularity waned at home", said the BBC. 

By contrast, her successor Chris Hipkins had to face an "increasingly irate and fed-up electorate, battling the hangover of the pandemic and a struggling economy", added the broadcaster.

New Zealand's "prominence on the global stage in recent years was defined by the young, progressive" Ardern, said Foreign Policy. Now, it is led by a National Party that is "distinctly out of step with other conservative politicians in Five Eyes [an intelligence sharing partnership comprising Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the UK, and US] because of its pro-China approach".

Argentina

Having emerged seemingly out of nowhere earlier in the year, libertarian populist Javier Milei stunned Argentina's political establishment by convincingly winning November's presidential election.

The "potty-mouthed political outsider", said The Guardian, has been described as "an Argentinian mash-up of Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro and Boris Johnson". Milei drew on public anger over economic mismanagement that saw inflation at almost 140% and the value of the peso plummet, to deliver a landslide victory against centre-left economy minister Sergio Massa.

Now in power, the former television presenter has vowed to push ahead with a series of radical campaign pledges that include replacing Argentina's currency with the US dollar, eliminating the central bank and 10 of Argentina's 18 federal departments, and slashing taxes, regulations and government spending. Having called climate change a "socialist lie", he also looks set to wage a culture war against the "woke" left, as well as introducing new laws giving people the freedom to sell their organs. And in his victory speech, he committed to holding a referendum over whether to re-criminalise abortion, which was legalised in Argentina in 2020.

The shock election result, in which Milei won all but three of Argentina's provinces, represents the "biggest defeat in its history for Peronism – the statist system of government named after its founder President Perón – which has governed the country for most of the last 75 years", said The Times. It also serves "as yet another indicator of the far-right's rise across the Americas and around the world", said Vox.