Five takeaways from Scottish Labour's surprising by-election win

Politicians in Scotland and Westminster are digesting the outcome of the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election for the Holyrood Parliament – Scottish Labour narrowly defeating the SNP, with Reform UK coming a close third.

The "keenly awaited" result comes with less than a year to go until the Scottish Parliament election, said the BBC, but its significance stretches far beyond the border.

'Caveats' for Labour

The "basics" is that this is a "good result" for Scottish Labour, said the BBC. Despite slipping in the polls "considerably" since last year's general election and finding themselves "on the defensive" over "controversial" UK Labour policies, they've taken the Holyrood seat from the SNP.

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But there are "some caveats". Labour won a Westminster by-election there less than two years ago with a majority of about 9,500 and triumphed at the 2024 general election by a "similar margin", but this time they "squeaked through" on a "thin margin" margin of 602 votes.

'Fragile' SNP

The result is "more than ample evidence" that the SNP has made "very little progress" since last summer, polling expert John Curtice told the BBC. It "confirms very, very clearly" that John Swinney's party still has an "awful lot of work to do" to get the pro-Yes voters who fled to Labour "back on side". Although the SNP would still be expected to be the biggest party in a Scotland-wide vote, it remains on "relatively fragile ground".

Defiant Reform

Privately, at least, Reform UK might be disappointed. The party had "seemingly gained ground" from both the SNP and Scottish Labour in recent weeks, said The Guardian, and "speculation grew" that it might "push" Labour into third place.

Instead, it was Nigel Farage's right-wing party that finished third but Ross Lambie, Reform’s candidate, was unabashed, declaring at the count that the result showed there was a "new party in Scotland", so it will be a "three-horse race" for Holyrood next year.

'Dismal' Tories

The Conservatives' "dismal" fourth place, with just 6% of the vote, is "more bad news" for Kemi Badenoch, said The Telegraph. Her opponents will "cite it as fresh evidence that she is failing to turn around the party’s fortunes", and Scottish Tories will be asking "where on earth they go from here".

One word will "crop up repeatedly" as right-wing voters "digest" this result: "pact". As much as Badenoch and Farage "hate to discuss it", the "combined votes" for their respective parties would have been enough to win this by-election.

Stayaway Starmer

For Keir Starmer himself, the result was something of a mixed bag. The win has handed the prime minister a "much needed boost", said The Independent, after a campaign that had posed the "question of whether the Keir Starmer project is working".

But the win comes after Starmer himself kept a tactical distance from the campaigning. So, "in essence", said Lucy Dunn in The Spectator, Scottish Labour won "in spite of" the prime minister.