French government on brink of collapse over budget stand-off

Marine Le Pen has threatened to topple the French government over what she calls its "bad, unjust and violent" budget.

In a "dramatic move", the far-right leader gave Prime Minister Michel Barnier until today to respond to her National Rally party's demands and alter his government's budget plans, said Politico. There are fears in French financial markets that the fall of the government could "precipitate a eurozone-wide crisis".

What is in Barnier's budget?

Despite "lacking a majority in parliament", Barnier announced a budget including €60 billion (£50 billion) of spending cuts and tax rises, said The Guardian. Barnier, who belongs to the moderate right-wing Republicans party, proposed cuts in welfare, health, pensions and local government. There were several other controversial measures, including the restoration of a levy on electricity consumption that had been lifted during the energy crisis.

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Barnier said the measures are necessary to reduce the French national deficit, which is projected to come in at 6.1% of gross domestic product in 2024, with some forecasts predicting it could reach almost 7% next year. Barnier says his plans would avoid that, trimming borrowing to 5% of GDP in 2025.

Why could the government collapse?

Barnier is in a vulnerable position because he presides over the hung parliament that emerged after Emmanuel Macron's snap election this summer. Barnier "cobbled together" a government with the backing of Macron's centrists and a "small band" of conservatives, said Politico. Together, they hold more seats than the left-wing New Popular Front, which garnered the most votes in the election but failed to win enough centrist allies to form a government.

But Barnier's hodgepodge majority relies on the continued participation of the far-right National Rally, which has seized the opportunity to maximise its leverage.

Le Pen, who leads National Rally's parliamentary grouping, has threatened to order her MPs to back a motion of no confidence in the government unless Barnier "agrees to soften the blow" to her "mainly working-class supporters" from the planned budget cuts, said The Times. The prime minister made a "key concession" last week by dropping plans to raise a tax on electricity. National Rally president Jordan Bardella claimed a "victory" over the climbdown, but he warned that "other red lines remain", said The Guardian.

Does the crisis threaten the eurozone?

Barnier warned that toppling the government could cause a "big storm and very serious turbulence" in financial markets. Some analysts believe that France is heading for a debt crisis reminiscent of the near implosion of the eurozone in 2012, when Greece was forced to seek a bailout from the EU and International Monetary Fund.

But National Rally MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy, considered a party "heavyweight", accused Barnier of "crying wolf", said Politico. Barnier is "unable to ensure tax reforms based on justice and fair contributions for all", said Tanguy, so he's "forced to brandish panic" and the "fear of chaos".

"Comparisons with Greece are completely overblown," Andrew Kenningham, the chief Europe economist at the research firm Capital Economics, told The Guardian. Although France has "major fiscal problems" it is "not going to default or cause a huge eurozone crisis anytime soon".

What next?

The "big question is what Le Pen will do" when her self-imposed deadline runs out, said Politico. Bringing down the government would carry "some risks" for her party, which has "assiduously worked to clean up its image" and present itself as "a responsible force ready to take the reins of government – not burn the house down".

But it is a "strategic mistake" to believe she will "win over the metropolitan bourgeoisie" by "acting 'responsibly' for the sake of the Republic", said Gavin Mortimer in The Spectator. This demographic "will never vote for her party". Rather, Le Pen "should focus on appealing to the one third of the electorate who didn’t vote in the legislative election, many of whom have been alienated" by decades of "consensual politics".