Reform on the rise: can smaller parties reshape British politics?

Labour's landslide win is the big story of the general election, but there were historic gains for Reform UK and the Greens, and victories by pro-Gaza independent candidates.

Speaking after winning in Clacton-on-Sea, Reform leader Nigel Farage said he plans to "build a mass national movement over the course of the next few years", and "hopefully it'll be big enough to challenge the general election properly" in 2029.

'Fox in the henhouse'

Reform came second in more than 100 seats, suggesting it could become "even more of a force at future elections", said Politico. Speaking to Sky News, the party's deputy leader David Bull said that, by 2029, "you'll see Nigel as prime minister".

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With Reform in such ebullient form, the Tories must "decide what to do about Mr Farage and his insurgent party", said The Economist. "Put simply," Farage "must be buried or bedded". 

But "judging by the amount of votes won by Reform", the "mob will not happily return to the Tories". Although the two parties have much in common, the "narcissism of small differences is often the hardest to overcome".

Farage will be "emboldened to replace, rather than seek a pact with" the Conservatives, said Robert Shrimsley in the Financial Times. His plan is to "destroy the Tories by poaching much of their vote", then "replace – or take over – the party’s remnants", said The New York Times.

At the eighth attempt, Farage has finally become an MP, so now the "fox is in the henhouse", said the former Ukip MEP Patrick O'Flynn in The Telegraph. His party is "about to tear the cosy Westminster clique to shreds".

Not only does he have "democratic legitimacy and a media platform as an MP", but Reform now "qualifies for a small fortune in Short Money with which to bankroll a professional party machine". So there is "every reason to believe" that Farage can successfully gun for Labour next.

British politics is "about to change utterly", said Shrimsley. Thanks to the success of Reform, there will "suddenly be many Labour MPs looking at the threat from the nationalist right" and this "may well check some progressive instincts".

'Shape government policy'

But the threat to Labour might not just be coming from the right. 

Gaza has cost Labour at least five seats, said Isabel Hardman in The Spectator. So the success of those independent candidates might "shape UK government policy" because Starmer will "have to decide" what to do about Israel and "whether to change the current arms exports licensing regime".

Meanwhile, the new Green MP for Brighton Pavilion, Siân Berry, said that her party will be looking to influence Starmer on climate. "We've got a change of government," she told the i news site, but "that doesn't change very much unless we can get some of the ideas in our manifesto into Labour's programme", so "that's what we're working on".

Although the first-past-the-post electoral system favours the big two, the rise of the smaller parties shows that they can significantly influence the fortunes of Labour and the Conservatives. Whether Farage can go further than that and challenge for the top job remains to be seen.