Is Venezuela about to start a war in Latin America?
A dispute over Guyana's oil-rich territory could turn violent. Or it might sway a presidential election.


Is a threat by Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro to annex Guyana's oil fields a prelude to war in Latin America? Or is the strongman merely trying to rally his own nation ahead of a presidential election next year? No one really knows for sure, The Miami Herald reports, but American officials are "increasingly concerned over how far Nicolas Maduro may be willing to go."
Maduro's claim over the Essequibo region of Guyana "would give Caracas a claim to offshore oil riches that Guyana recently found and that Venezuela clearly covets," Alexandra Sharp explained at Foreign Policy. A weekend referendum in Venezuela supposedly received the backing of 95 percent of voters in favor of annexation, though it's important to note the government this week also ordered the mass arrest of annexation opponents. Maduro's aim in all of this is to "give him a claim to big oil, bolster support for his United Socialist Party, and pigeonhole the opposition into appearing anti-patriotic."
It's a threat that leaders across the Western Hemisphere are taking seriously. Irfaan Ali, president of Guyana, told The Associated Press his country is preparing to defend itself. "We take this threat very seriously, and we have initiated a number of precautionary measures to ensure the peace and stability of this region," he said. And the U.S. is weighing in: Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Ali to offer America's "unwavering support for Guyana's sovereignty."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
What the commentators said
"The norm that borders cannot be changed through military force now faces its first major test in this hemisphere in generations," Ben Rowswell, who previously served as Canada's ambassador to Venezuela argued in The Globe and Mail. But Maduro "has made a career of breaking norms" — incarcerating opponents, subverting elections and suspending the country's constitution. While control of Essequibo has been disputed for more than a century, there's no real question that the territory belongs to Guyana. "We cannot accept a potential invasion."
With wars raging in Ukraine and Gaza, it's clear "President Biden does not want a dispute with Mr. Maduro now," The Washington Post editorialized. But Maduro's threat comes on the heels of his failure to make good on promises to hold a free presidential election and to release U.S. citizens improperly held by his government. (The U.S. dropped longstanding sanctions on Venezuela in exchange for those promises.) America "needs to respond with sanctions that squeeze Mr. Maduro and his gang, who have driven Venezuela to ruin."
The presidential election is the point, El País editorialized. A potential conflict with Guyana gives Maduro "the perfect excuse to declare 'internal commotion' and postpone the elections indefinitely." Maduro called the referendum on Essequibo the day after María Corina Machado overwhelmingly won the opposition primary election to oppose him. His party "has used the territorial conflict to stir up the specter of internal conspiracy" and cast Machado as the source of strife. The threat to Guyana is also a "threat to a fair electoral process."
What next?
Tensions are rising in the region. Brazil — which borders both Venezuela and Guyana to the south — this week announced that it is deploying troops along its border. "If there's one thing we don't want here in South America it's war," Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told a summit of South American officials this week. "We don't need conflict. We need to build peace."
The American military is also getting involved. CBS News reported that the Defense Department will conduct "joint military flight drills" with Guyana in order to "strengthen regional cooperation." "The U.S. will continue its commitment as Guyana's trusted security partner and promoting regional cooperation and interoperability," the department said in a statement. And diplomats are hard at work: The United Nations Security Council scheduled an emergency session on the issue for Friday.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Joel Mathis is a writer with 30 years of newspaper and online journalism experience. His work also regularly appears in National Geographic and The Kansas City Star. His awards include best online commentary at the Online News Association and (twice) at the City and Regional Magazine Association.
-
Holy mate-trimony: the rise of 'friendship marriages'
Under the Radar Young people in China, Japan and the US are saying 'I do' to platonic unions, to alleviate social pressure or loneliness and access financial benefits
-
Deportations ensnare migrant families, U.S. citizens
Feature Trump's deportation crackdown is sweeping up more than just immigrants as ICE targets citizens, judges and nursing mothers
-
Trump shrugs off warnings over trade war costs
Feature Trump's tariffs are spiraling the U.S. toward an economic crisis as shipments slow down—and China doesn't plan to back down
-
How could Trump ending a VA mortgage program leave veterans on the streets?
Today's Big Question Vets could face foreclosure as a result of the White House's actions
-
Why is Crimea a sticking point between Russia and Ukraine?
Today's Big Question Questions over control of the Black Sea peninsula are stymying the peace process
-
With Dick Durbin's retirement, where do Democrats go from here?
TODAY'S BIG QUESTION The number two Senate Democrat's pending departure is a pivotal moment for a party looking for leadership in the second Trump administration
-
Elon Musk has his 'legion.' How will Republicans encourage other Americans to have babies?
Today's Big Question The pronatalist movement finds itself in power
-
El Salvador's CECOT prison becomes Washington's go-to destination
IN THE SPOTLIGHT Republicans and Democrats alike are clamoring for access to the Trump administration's extrajudicial deportation camp — for very different reasons
-
How might Trump's tariffs affect the luxury goods market?
Today's Big Question Luxury clothes, cars and watches could take a hit in the coming months
-
Could Trump's tariff war be his undoing with the GOP?
TODAY'S BIG QUESTION The catastrophic effects of the president's 'Liberation Day' tariffs might create a serious wedge between him and the rest of the Republican party
-
Supreme Court gives Trump 2 deportation wins
Speed Read The court ruled that the Trump administration could continue to deport Venezuelan migrants