Who controls Lebanon?

A year of escalating violence between Hezbollah and Israel has exposed Lebanon's ineffectiveness as a state. While Hezbollah's militia is a designated terrorist organisation, and the world's biggest non-state army, the Iran-backed movement's political wing is the dominant force in the complex power-sharing arrangement of Lebanese politics.

The growing threat of an Israeli ground invasion into southern Lebanon, Hezbollah's stronghold, has put the Lebanese government's capacity to respond in the event of all-out war under scrutiny.

What did the commentators say?

Lebanese politics is "characterised by a corrupt, sectarian structure", after its many years of bloody civil war, said Dr Lina Khatib and Jon Wallace for Chatham House.

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Religion plays a crucial and somewhat paralysing role. A Maronite Christian must serve as president, a Sunni Muslim as prime minister and a Shia Muslim as the speaker of Parliament. All religious sects are represented in the government, the military and the civil service, and political parties are "defined more by religious affiliations than economic or social policy".

The system may look like an attempt to "ensure equality", but it is more of a "division of power between the elites" rather than a recipe for "ensuring good governance". The effect is a "weak, corrupt, patronage-based system", and a government "largely made up of competing bureaucratic fiefdoms rather than a single unit attempting to govern the Lebanese state". 

Hezbollah is the "dominant Shia force in Lebanon's politics" – and the "most influential political organisation" in the country. "It probably could take over the Lebanese state by force, but it is far more effective to exercise power in Lebanon's weak state without taking on responsibilities of office."

The group effectively operates as a "state within a state", said The Times in an editorial. Its "heartland" is Southern Lebanon, a predominantly Shia Muslim area where the group stays within "easy striking distance" of Israel. That border area is a "no-go zone" for Israeli civilians, thanks to Hezbollah's Iran-supplied rockets – tens of thousands have already fled. 

Many Hezbollah leaders have been "culled" by exploding pagers and airstrikes, but the group still maintains an "enormous network of subterranean tunnels" shielding more troops and weapons – over a much wider area than those of Gaza. If Israel does mount a ground invasion, or even keep up its current level of airstrikes, the consequences for southern Lebanese civilians on the other side of the border will be "dire". 

But for too long, a "shadow terrorist state has poisoned the well of Lebanon's national life, depriving it of sovereignty, stability and prosperity", said The Times. "The demise of the so-called Party of God cannot come soon enough."

What next?

Hezbollah's militia is a designated terrorist group, but it is also a "legitimate and constitutional" political force, said Euronews. So when Hezbollah unilaterally targets Israel, Lebanon's other political forces are "completely paralysed".

Meanwhile, Lebanon's army is "nowhere to be seen", said the news site. It is "not even trying" to shoot down Israeli missiles. Its absence, and its "insufficient weaponry", casts doubt on Lebanon's "capacity to confront a major conflict".

Khalil Helou, an on-leave general and a professor of geopolitics at St Joseph University of Beirut, said the army had been "left to itself" in the crisis.

"Now whoever commands the army, whoever is the commander-in-chief of the army, they must take the decisions that they find suitable," he said.

If the Israeli army does turn airstrikes into a "boots-on-the-ground operation", the Lebanese military will be faced with a "major dilemma". 

"To confront Hezbollah is an immediate and automatic recipe for civil war," said Helou. The army's "absolute priority" is Lebanon's internal stability. It has never used its force to disarm Hezbollah, but has also avoided confrontation with Israel's forces when Israel invaded in 2006, despite the bombing of some of its bases. 

Should Israel launch a ground invasion, the most likely scenario is that the Lebanese army withdraws, and lets Israel and Hezbollah fight it out.