U.S. and Britain reportedly believe the Ukraine war could last 10-20 years, become a Russian quagmire

As the sun rises on a seventh day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a 40-mile-long Russian military convoy appears stalled about 20 miles north of Kyiv, and the Ukrainian-held cities of Kharkiv, Kherson, and Mariupol are encircled. Russia also intensified its bombing of cities on Tuesday, including in civilian areas. Footage "of the aftermath of a missile strike that hit Kyiv's main TV tower and a nearby Holocaust memorial showed a gruesome scene of blown-out cars and buildings and several bodies on fire," The Washington Post reports.
Despite Moscow's "shambolic start to its military campaign, most Western officials and analysts believe Russia will turn to criminal siege tactics and eventually find a way to break through Ukraine's fierce and valiant resistance," Politico's Alex Ward writes. A U.S. official tells CBS News that Russia could tactically seize Kyiv and Ukraine in four to six weeks.
Still, "given the durability of the Ukrainian resistance and its long history of pushing Russia back, the U.S. and Western powers do not believe that this will be a short war," CBS News reports. "The U.K. foreign secretary estimated it would be a 10-year war. Lawmakers at the Capitol were told Monday it is likely to last 10, 15, or 20 years — and that ultimately, Russia will lose."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A long, drawn-out quagmire would obviously be bad for Russian President Vladimir Putin and for Ukraine's citizens, but it also has repercussions for President Biden, CBS's Margaret Brennan noted Tuesday night.
Emily Harding, a former National Security Council staffer, warned Tuesday that the U.S. and Europe should prepare for 8-10 years of economically disruptive conflict in Ukraine, Roll Call reports. If the U.S. sticks with Ukraine and supports its shadow war, "Russian casualties will be through the roof," former CIA Afghanistan operations chief Michael Vickers told the same CSIS audience. "This could be an insurgency that is bigger than our Afghan one in the 1980s in terms of things we could provide them that would really hurt Russia."
"There is not going to be a Vichy Ukraine," former U.S. Ukraine Ambassador John Herbst told the Post. "There may be an effort to create it but the Ukrainians are not going to go gently into the good night. They are going to fight like hell."
One question going forward, "Is Putin willing to go full barbarian on Ukraine or full Strangelove on nuclear stuff?" Herbst said. "And question two is: Will the military apparatus carry out such instructions?"
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
5 low approval cartoons about poll numbers
Cartoons Artists take on fake pollsters, shared disapproval, and more
-
Deepfakes and impostors: the brave new world of AI jobseeking
In The Spotlight More than 80% of large companies use AI in their hiring process, but increasingly job candidates are getting in on the act
-
Sudoku medium: May 4, 2025
The Week's daily medium sudoku puzzle
-
Is the 'coalition of the willing' going to work?
Today's Big Question PM's proposal for UK/French-led peacekeeping force in Ukraine provokes 'hostility' in Moscow and 'derision' in Washington
-
Ukraine: where do Trump's loyalties really lie?
Today's Big Question 'Extraordinary pivot' by US president – driven by personal, ideological and strategic factors – has 'upended decades of hawkish foreign policy toward Russia'
-
What will Trump-Putin Ukraine peace deal look like?
Today's Big Question US president 'blindsides' European and UK leaders, indicating Ukraine must concede seized territory and forget about Nato membership
-
Ukraine's disappearing army
Under the Radar Every day unwilling conscripts and disillusioned veterans are fleeing the front
-
Cuba's mercenaries fighting against Ukraine
The Explainer Young men lured by high salaries and Russian citizenship to enlist for a year are now trapped on front lines of war indefinitely
-
Ukraine-Russia: are both sides readying for nuclear war?
Today's Big Question Putin changes doctrine to lower threshold for atomic weapons after Ukraine strikes with Western missiles
-
What would happen if Russia declared war on Nato?
In depth Response to an attack on UK or other Western allies would be 'overwhelming'
-
Are Ukraine's F-16 fighter jets too little too late?
Today's Big Question US-made aircraft are 'significant improvement' on Soviet-era weaponry but long delay and lack of trained pilots could undo advantage against Russia