Ukraine: where do Trump's loyalties really lie?

The announcement that the US is "pausing and reviewing" all military aid to Ukraine has been met with applause in at least one quarter. Kremlin spokesman Dimitri Peskov said President Donald Trump's decision to cut off Ukraine's defence fund "could really push the Kyiv regime to a peace process", said the BBC. Meanwhile, Ukrainian MP Oleksandr Merezhko told the corporation that the move was a "disaster" for Kyiv and suggests that the White House is now "siding with Russia" in the conflict.

What did the commentators say?

In just over a month, Trump has "executed a startling realignment of American foreign policy, effectively throwing US support behind Moscow", said NBC News. This "extraordinary pivot" that "has upended decades of hawkish foreign policy toward Russia" has seen Trump accuse Ukraine of starting the war, brand President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a "dictator", and now suspend all military aid to the country.

So far, his administration has sanctioned direct "peace" talks with the Kremlin, voted against a UN resolution blaming Moscow for its invasion, ended offensive cyber operations against Russia, disbanded efforts to seize the assets of Russian oligarchs, halted efforts to combat covert Russian influence online, and signalled that it is prepared to loosen economic sanctions.

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All this amounts to a simple truth that Western leaders are only now coming to terms with: "Trump is with Putin far more than he is with Europe's democracies", including Ukraine, said Phillips Payson O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, in The Atlantic.

This should perhaps come as no surprise to anyone who has watched Trump over the past decade. He has a "unique kinship" with the Russian leader that goes back to the investigation into alleged interference by Moscow during the 2016 US presidential election, said AP News. There is also an ideological and strategic rationale behind Trump's backing for Putin, explained his former chief advisor and "godfather of the Maga right", Steve Bannon, in a recent interview with The New Statesman. He said "Ukraine is a sideshow" in the long-term strategy of bringing the US and Russia together as partners in the same "Judaeo-Christian civilisation" in order to confront the real threat posed by China.

What next?

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has insisted this strategy is the best way to end the war, and that Trump is "the only leader in the world that could actually get Putin to agree to a peace". But "this is the opposite of what Trump’s actions are likely to achieve", said Katie Stallard in The New Statesman. By accusing Zelenskyy of being the main impediment to peace, the Trump administration is "only strengthening Putin's hand" and "making it less likely" that the Russian leader will offer concessions in following negotiations "let alone agree to the kind of terms that might yield a durable peace, such as the presence of a European peacekeeping force in Ukraine".