Trump is just as likely as Clinton to win the nomination, professor finds

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published 6 January 2016

Hillary Clinton isn't the only candidate who could be a shoo-in for her party's nomination this presidential election. Princeton Professor Sam Wang says that an analysis of existing and past poll data has led him to this conclusion: "Donald Trump is in as strong a position to get his party's nomination as Hillary Clinton in 2016, George W. Bush in 2000, or Al Gore in 2000."

While Wang acknowledges that Trump's candidacy is a bit different than the other examples he cites — he doesn't have the establishment behind him, for example — Wang says the data does skew decidedly in Trump's favor.

In each of the presidential elections since 2000, candidates that ranked first or second in both national polls and surveys in Iowa and New Hampshire were almost always the ones to win the nomination. In fact, the only candidate in the last four elections that proved to be the exception was Democratic nominee John Kerry in 2004, who was No. 4 nationally and No. 3 in Iowa. In New Hampshire, he clenched the No. 1 spot.