Trump is just as likely as Clinton to win the nomination, professor finds

Hillary Clinton isn't the only candidate who could be a shoo-in for her party's nomination this presidential election. Princeton Professor Sam Wang says that an analysis of existing and past poll data has led him to this conclusion: "Donald Trump is in as strong a position to get his party's nomination as Hillary Clinton in 2016, George W. Bush in 2000, or Al Gore in 2000."
While Wang acknowledges that Trump's candidacy is a bit different than the other examples he cites — he doesn't have the establishment behind him, for example — Wang says the data does skew decidedly in Trump's favor.
In each of the presidential elections since 2000, candidates that ranked first or second in both national polls and surveys in Iowa and New Hampshire were almost always the ones to win the nomination. In fact, the only candidate in the last four elections that proved to be the exception was Democratic nominee John Kerry in 2004, who was No. 4 nationally and No. 3 in Iowa. In New Hampshire, he clenched the No. 1 spot.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Out of the 2016 Republican field, Trump is the only candidate with all No. 1 and No. 2 rankings. The only candidate close to Trump is Ted Cruz — but he has a No. 3 ranking in New Hampshire.
Read Wang's full breakdown here.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Today's political cartoons - February 23, 2025
Cartoons Saturday's cartoons - loser's game, unexpected consequences, and more
By The Week US Published
-
5 slow on the draw cartoons about Democrats' response to Trump
Cartoons Artists take on taking a stand, staying still as a statue, and more
By The Week US Published
-
A road trip through Zimbabwe
The Week Recommends The country is 'friendly and relaxed', with plenty to see for those who wish to explore
By The Week UK Published
-
Mitch McConnell won't seek reelection
Speed Read The longest-serving Senate party leader is retiring
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump reportedly wants to take over US Postal Service
Speed Read President Trump is making plans to disband the leadership of USPS and absorb the agency into his administration
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Trump seeks to end New York's congestion pricing
Speed Read The MTA quickly filed a lawsuit to stop the move
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Trump officials try to reverse DOGE-led firings
Speed Read Mass firings by Elon Musk's team have included employees working on the H5N1 bird flu epidemic and US nuclear weapons programs
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Trump blames Ukraine for war after US-Russia talks
Speed Read The US and Russia have agreed to work together on ending the Ukraine war — but President Trump has flipped America's approach
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Musk's DOGE seeks access to IRS, Social Security files
Speed Read If cleared, the Department of Government Efficiency would have access to tax returns, bank records and other highly personal information about most Americans
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Senate confirms RFK Jr. as health secretary
Speed Read The noted vaccine skeptic is now in charge of America's massive public health system
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Trump lays out plans for broad 'reciprocal' tariffs
Speed Read Tariffs imposed on countries that are deemed to be treating the US unfairly could ignite a global trade war and worsen American inflation
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published