Nate Silver puts Clinton's odds of beating Trump at almost 80 percent

Despite the nail-biting polls, statistician Nate Silver predicted Wednesday that Hillary Clinton has a whopping 79 percent chance of winning a general election against Donald Trump. Silver correctly predicted the results of 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and correctly guessed the results of every single state in 2012. Still, Silver predicted that Trump had a mere 2 percent chance of winning the GOP nomination last August.

But Silver asserted himself on Good Morning America, claiming that his 2 percent estimate wasn't based on looking at the polls. "One big lesson of [Trump's] campaign is, don't try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public," Silver warned. He added that states like Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, and North Carolina — all of which are usually red — could be toss-ups in this "crazy year."

"Here's how to think about it," Silver said. "We're kind of at halftime of the election right now, and [Clinton's] taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime. There's a lot of football left to be played, but she's ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll." Jeva Lange

The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up