Trump's trade policies could bring recession by 2020, economists predict

Finance papers.
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The economic growth party's gotta end at some point.

Two-thirds of business economists say that point will arrive by 2020, Bloomberg reported Monday, when they expect a recession to begin as a result of current U.S. trade policies.

Most of those polled by the National Association for Business Economists say a recession is coming sooner rather than later: 10 percent said it could begin as soon as 2019, and 56 percent predicted it would begin in 2020. Another 33 percent said an economic contraction wouldn't begin until 2021 or later.

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About half of the economists increased their inflation forecasts and 80 percent reduced their GDP growth predictions as a result of recent trade issues, like rising tensions with China and the still-increasing tariff battle. Forty-one percent of those polled said trade policies are the biggest risk to the U.S. economy, reports Bloomberg.

"Despite concerns over trade policy," said NABE executive Kevin Swift, economists "are slightly more optimistic about the U.S. economy in 2018 than they were three months ago." Those surveyed were pleased about the nearly record-breaking economic expansion streak, and cited corporate tax reform as a major boost to the economy overall. Even so, "trade issues are clearly influencing panelists' views" on future growth and a forthcoming recession, concluded NABE executive David Altig.

The NABE poll was conducted Aug. 28-Sept. 17, surveying a panel of 51 professional economic forecasters. See more results at the National Association for Business Economists.

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