MSNBC's Steve Kornacki says Biden enters his convention with a solid lead. CNN's Chris Cuomo isn't buying it.
 
 
The Democratic National Convention may be very unusual this year, but as with other "modern conventions, we have got a whole bunch of polls just as this convention gets underway," MSNBC's Steve Kornacki said Monday night. A CNN/SSRS poll showing Democrat Joe Biden with just a 4 percentage point lead "got the most attention today," but it "looks like the outlier" among the five big recent polls, he said, and "the average of these most recent polls is Joe Biden with an 8-point advantage over Donald Trump."
"Put that in some perspective: Of all the challengers who've run against an incumbent president, this is the best a challenger against an incumbent has been doing at this point since Bill Clinton in '92 against George Bush Sr.," Kornacki said. "Of course, that was the last challenger to unseat a president."
Rachel Maddow asked Kornacki what he says to people who point to 2016 and argue polls mean nothing. He said he gets the critique, but "on her absolute best day, Hillary Clinton could get polls like this, but more often you found that Clinton lead over Trump shrinking to 5, 4, 3 points," while Biden's lead has stayed in the high single digits or low double digits for months. "I keep saying, follow the polling average," Kornacki said. "If the polling average gets down to 5, to 4, to 3 points, to somewhere in that range, then I think you start talking about Electoral College, you start talking about Trump with that pathway he found in 2016."
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
 
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
At CNN, poll watcher Harry Enten agreed that the polling average put Biden in a much better spot than Clinton in 2016, but "there has been some slight tightening over the last month," and Biden is up by much less in the crucial swing states. "It took you 55 seconds, but you finally got to the only point of substance that you've made thus far," host Chris Cuomo needled. "It's all about the Electoral College, it's all about the swing states." The five top swing states are why "the race nationally, in my mind, is actually closer to say a 6-point margin," Enten said, so "I do think this race is closer than folks think it might be just based upon the national polls." Cuomo reiterated his view that "Democrats should be nervous," meeting some resistance from Enten and fellow host Don Lemon. Watch below. Peter Weber
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
- 
 Trump vows new tariffs on Canada over Reagan ad Trump vows new tariffs on Canada over Reagan adspeed read The ad that offended the president has Ronald Reagan explaining why import taxes hurt the economy 
- 
 NY attorney general asks public for ICE raid footage NY attorney general asks public for ICE raid footageSpeed Read Rep. Dan Goldman claims ICE wrongly detained four US citizens in the Canal Street raid and held them for a whole day without charges 
- 
 Trump’s huge ballroom to replace razed East Wing Trump’s huge ballroom to replace razed East WingSpeed Read The White House’s east wing is being torn down amid ballroom construction 
- 
 Trump expands boat strikes to Pacific, killing 5 more Trump expands boat strikes to Pacific, killing 5 moreSpeed Read The US military destroyed two more alleged drug smuggling boats in international waters 
- 
 Trump demands millions from his administration Trump demands millions from his administrationSpeed Read The president has requested $230 million in compensation from the Justice Department for previous federal investigations 
- 
 Trump nominee in limbo after racist texts leak Trump nominee in limbo after racist texts leakSpeed Read Paul Ingrassia lost Republican support following the exposure of past racist text messages 
- 
 Trump begins East Wing demolition for ballroom Trump begins East Wing demolition for ballroomspeed read The president’s new construction will cost $250 million 
- 
 Appeals court clears Trump’s Portland troop deployment Appeals court clears Trump’s Portland troop deploymentSpeed Read A divided federal appeals court ruled that President Trump can send the National Guard to Portland 



