Speed Reads

2020 poll watch

Biden seemingly didn't get a convention polling bump — and his lead is sliding in some swing states

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden shouldn't get too comfortable.

It's been a few days since the end of the Democratic National Convention, and as FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver notes, Biden hasn't seen a typical post-DNC bump in his polling numbers. And while he was once handily leading in several states Hillary Clinton surprisingly lost in 2016, those advantages are starting to slip as well.

Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016 — three states that were usually seen as reliably Democratic before that election. Even as of late August 2016, Clinton had a clear lead over Trump in those states: 9 points in Michigan, 9.2 in Pennsylvania, and 11.5 in Wisconsin. But while Biden still has leads in those states, just as he did a month ago, those advantages have narrowed to below Clinton's margins.

Nationally, Biden still has a wide 8.8 point lead over Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight's polling average — even higher than the 5.7-point lead Clinton had at this point in 2016. But as Clinton herself has recognized, national popular votes don't matter when the Electoral College gets in the way.