'Trump can still win,' Nate Silver reminds a country that doesn't seem to need reminding

Trump rallies
(Image credit: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images)

"Joe Biden heads into Election Day with a unique coalition and multiple paths to victory against President Donald Trump — but some Democrats can hardly believe the polls, haunted by the ghosts of 2016," NBC News reports. Jesse Ferguson, Hillary Clinton's 2016 deputy national press secretary, describes the mood among many Democrats as "a blend of confidence that this election is very different than the last one, and dread." Many Trump supporters remain convinced he can pull off another big upset.

"And indeed — although nobody needs any reminders of this after 2016 — Trump can win," Nate Silver says at FiveThirtyEight. "All the election models are bullish on Biden, but they are united in that a Trump win is still plausible despite his seemingly steep deficit in polls." Almost all forecasts expect Biden to win the popular vote, and FiveThirtyEight gives Biden an 89 percent shot at winning the Electoral College, but "Trump's chances in our forecast are about 10 percent and not zero," Silver noted.

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Peter Weber, The Week US

Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.