'Trump can still win,' Nate Silver reminds a country that doesn't seem to need reminding


"Joe Biden heads into Election Day with a unique coalition and multiple paths to victory against President Donald Trump — but some Democrats can hardly believe the polls, haunted by the ghosts of 2016," NBC News reports. Jesse Ferguson, Hillary Clinton's 2016 deputy national press secretary, describes the mood among many Democrats as "a blend of confidence that this election is very different than the last one, and dread." Many Trump supporters remain convinced he can pull off another big upset.
"And indeed — although nobody needs any reminders of this after 2016 — Trump can win," Nate Silver says at FiveThirtyEight. "All the election models are bullish on Biden, but they are united in that a Trump win is still plausible despite his seemingly steep deficit in polls." Almost all forecasts expect Biden to win the popular vote, and FiveThirtyEight gives Biden an 89 percent shot at winning the Electoral College, but "Trump's chances in our forecast are about 10 percent and not zero," Silver noted.
If Trump significantly over-performs his polls and wins Pennsylvania, for example, "Biden does have some paths to victory" but he goes "from favorite to underdog," Silver said. And "if Biden wins the popular vote by 2 to 3 percentage points, the Electoral College is roughly a toss-up. But if Biden wins the popular vote by less than 2 points, Trump is a fairly heavy favorite to win the election. Even popular vote margins of up to 6 points are not entirely safe for Biden if his votes are distributed in exactly the wrong way." Biden's current national polling lead, according to FiveThirtyEight, is 8.5 percentage points.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Polling and electoral forecast sites aren't "giving" Biden an 89 percent chance of winning — "we aren't giving anybody anything," Silver said. Instead, his site is "mapping uncertainty," and you don't know everything you don't know. "Systematic polling errors do occur, and it’s hard to predict them ahead of time or to anticipate the reasons in advance," he added. Read more, including numerous charts, at FiveThirtyEight.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
Today's political cartoons - May 6, 2025
Cartoons Tuesday's cartoons - rare earth minerals, rising prices, and more
-
What to know about Real IDs, America's new identification cards
The Explainer People without a Real ID cannot board a commercial flight as of May 7, 2025
-
Where is the left-wing Reform?
Today's Big Question As the Labour Party leans towards the right, progressive voters have been left with few alternatives
-
Putin talks nukes as Kyiv slated for US air defenses
speed read 'I hope they will not be required,' Putin said of nuclear weapons on Russian state TV
-
US, Ukraine sign joint minerals deal
speed read The Trump administration signed a deal with Ukraine giving the US access to its mineral wealth
-
What happens if tensions between India and Pakistan boil over?
TODAY'S BIG QUESTION As the two nuclear-armed neighbors rattle their sabers in the wake of a terrorist attack on the contested Kashmir region, experts worry that the worst might be yet to come
-
Israel launches air strike on Beirut suburbs
Speed Read The attack targeting Hezbollah was Israel's third on the Lebanese capital since November's ceasefire
-
Dozens dead in Kashmir as terrorists target tourists
Speed Read Visitors were taking pictures and riding ponies in a popular mountain town when assailants open fired, killing at least 26
-
Israel blames 'failures' for killing of medics
speed read 14 Gaza medics and 1 U.N. employee were killed by IDF special forces
-
Why Russia removed the Taliban's terrorist designation
The Explainer Russia had designated the Taliban as a terrorist group over 20 years ago
-
China accuses NSA of Winter Games cyberattacks
speed read China alleges that the U.S. National Security Agency launched cyberattacks during the Asian Winter Games in February