I am not aware of any plausible election model according to which President Trump could have afforded not to win Florida again. Since it now appears that he has done so, it is worth asking why the opposite outcome was widely predicted.
The polling aggregator and ersatz sports website FiveThirtyEight gave Joe Biden a 6-point edge in the Sunshine State as of this morning. Provisional results suggest the former vice president losing 50 to 48, an 8-point difference. If that holds, it's not within the margin of error. It wouldn't even be within the margin of error’s margin of error. Such an embarrassment in a crucial state would be an indictment of the mainstream polling industry.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The simplest explanation, however, is that Trump won the enthusiasm sweepstakes. Florida was the state of boat parades, one in which avowed supporters of the QAnon conspiracy theory were plausible candidates for the House of Representatives. Just as it was always far fetched to imagine that the progressive Democrat Andrew Gillum was a shoo-in for the 2018 Florida gubernatorial election, the idea that Biden was going to perform significantly better there than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 was wishful thinking.
-
Is New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani’s plan for free buses realistic?Talking Points A transit innovation or a costly mistake
-
5 side hustle ideas to supplement your budgetthe explainer Almost two-thirds of Americans are looking to get a second job in the next year
-
DOJ indicts John Bolton over classified filesSpeed Read Continuing the trend of going after his political enemies, Trump prosecutes his former national security adviser
-
Sanae Takaichi: Japan’s Iron Lady set to be the country’s first woman prime ministerIn the Spotlight Takaichi is a member of Japan’s conservative, nationalist Liberal Democratic Party
-
Russia is ‘helping China’ prepare for an invasion of TaiwanIn the Spotlight Russia is reportedly allowing China access to military training
-
Interpol arrests hundreds in Africa-wide sextortion crackdownIN THE SPOTLIGHT A series of stings disrupts major cybercrime operations as law enforcement estimates millions in losses from schemes designed to prey on lonely users
-
China is silently expanding its influence in American citiesUnder the Radar New York City and San Francisco, among others, have reportedly been targeted
-
How China uses 'dark fleets' to circumvent trade sanctionsThe Explainer The fleets are used to smuggle goods like oil and fish
-
One year after mass protests, why are Kenyans taking to the streets again?today's big question More than 60 protesters died during demonstrations in 2024
-
The France-Indonesia push for an Israeli-Palestinian two-state solutionTalking Points Both countries have said a two-state solution is the way to end the Middle East conflict
-
Israel-US 'rift': is Trump losing patience with Netanyahu?Today's Big Question US president called for an end to Gaza war and negotiated directly with Hamas to return American hostage, amid rumours of strained relations
