I am not aware of any plausible election model according to which President Trump could have afforded not to win Florida again. Since it now appears that he has done so, it is worth asking why the opposite outcome was widely predicted.
The polling aggregator and ersatz sports website FiveThirtyEight gave Joe Biden a 6-point edge in the Sunshine State as of this morning. Provisional results suggest the former vice president losing 50 to 48, an 8-point difference. If that holds, it's not within the margin of error. It wouldn't even be within the margin of error’s margin of error. Such an embarrassment in a crucial state would be an indictment of the mainstream polling industry.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
-
The Week contest: Marriage poundsPuzzles and Quizzes
-
Today's political cartoons - March 27, 2025Cartoons Thursday's cartoons - group chats, language lessons, and more
-
Playhouse Creatures: 'dream-like' play is 'lively, funny and sharp-witted'Anna Chancellor offers a 'glinting performance' alongside a 'strong' supporting cast
-
The arrest of the Philippines' former president leaves the country's drug war in disarrayIn the Spotlight Rodrigo Duterte was arrested by the ICC earlier this month
-
Ukrainian election: who could replace Zelenskyy?The Explainer Donald Trump's 'dictator' jibe raises pressure on Ukraine to the polls while the country is under martial law
-
Why Serbian protesters set off smoke bombs in parliamentTHE EXPLAINER Ongoing anti-corruption protests erupted into full view this week as Serbian protesters threw the country's legislature into chaos
-
Who is the Hat Man? 'Shadow people' and sleep paralysisIn Depth 'Sleep demons' have plagued our dreams throughout the centuries, but the explanation could be medical
-
Was Jimmy Carter America's best ex-president?Today's Big Question Carter's presidency was marred by the Iran hostage crisis, but his work in the decades after leaving office won him global acclaim
-
Why Assad fell so fastThe Explainer The newly liberated Syria is in an incredibly precarious position, but it's too soon to succumb to defeatist gloom
-
Romania's election rerunThe Explainer Shock result of presidential election has been annulled following allegations of Russian interference
-
Russia's shadow war in EuropeTalking Point Steering clear of open conflict, Moscow is slowly ratcheting up the pressure on Nato rivals to see what it can get away with.
