Why Trump's improvement among minority voters doesn't yet signal 'a sea change' for conservatives


Exit polls are heavily suggesting President Trump performed better among minority voters in 2020 against Joe Biden than he did in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.
That has raised the question of whether the Republican Party or the conservative movement at large in the United States could be in for a significant demographic shift. But The New York Times' Ross Douthat thinks that idea may be premature, since the exit polls — which he and others have noted aren't particularly trustworthy anyway — don't actually show a major swing among minority voters.
Exit poll data compiled by Edison Research, for example, shows that Clinton garnered support from 88 percent of Black voters, with Biden only dropping a tick to 87 percent. Based on those data sets, Trump did cut into the margins among minority voters four years later thanks to an increase in support, but that didn't necessarily come at the expense of the Democratic Party, overall (regionally, there were clear shifts).
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Ultimately, one common takeaway has been that supposed voting blocs are not monolithic, making it difficult to predict how the political landscape will shape up going forward.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Tim is a staff writer at The Week and has contributed to Bedford and Bowery and The New York Transatlantic. He is a graduate of Occidental College and NYU's journalism school. Tim enjoys writing about baseball, Europe, and extinct megafauna. He lives in New York City.
-
Nepal chooses toddler as its new ‘living goddess’
Under the Radar Girls between two and four are typically chosen to live inside the temple as the Kumari – until puberty strikes
-
October 5 editorial cartoons
Cartoons Sunday's political cartoons include half-truth hucksters, Capitol lockdown, and more
-
Jaguar Land Rover’s cyber bailout
Talking Point Should the government do more to protect business from the ‘cyber shockwave’?
-
US tipped to help Kyiv strike Russian energy sites
Speed Read Trump has approved providing Ukraine with intelligence for missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure
-
Netanyahu agrees to Trump’s new Gaza peace plan
Speed Read At President Trump's meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, they agreed upon a plan to end Israel’s war in Gaza
-
Russia is ‘helping China’ prepare for an invasion of Taiwan
In the Spotlight Russia is reportedly allowing China access to military training
-
Moldova gives decisive win to pro-EU party
Speed Read The country is now on track to join the European Union within five years
-
Interpol arrests hundreds in Africa-wide sextortion crackdown
IN THE SPOTLIGHT A series of stings disrupts major cybercrime operations as law enforcement estimates millions in losses from schemes designed to prey on lonely users
-
UK, 3 Western allies recognize Palestinian state
Speed Read Britain, Canada, Australia and Portugal formally recognized the state of Palestine
-
Russia slams Kyiv, hits government building
Speed Read This was Moscow's largest aerial assault since launching its full-scale invasion in 2022
-
China's Xi hosts Modi, Putin, Kim in challenge to US
Speed Read Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Asian leaders at an SCO summit