Why Trump's improvement among minority voters doesn't yet signal 'a sea change' for conservatives
Exit polls are heavily suggesting President Trump performed better among minority voters in 2020 against Joe Biden than he did in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.
That has raised the question of whether the Republican Party or the conservative movement at large in the United States could be in for a significant demographic shift. But The New York Times' Ross Douthat thinks that idea may be premature, since the exit polls — which he and others have noted aren't particularly trustworthy anyway — don't actually show a major swing among minority voters.
Exit poll data compiled by Edison Research, for example, shows that Clinton garnered support from 88 percent of Black voters, with Biden only dropping a tick to 87 percent. Based on those data sets, Trump did cut into the margins among minority voters four years later thanks to an increase in support, but that didn't necessarily come at the expense of the Democratic Party, overall (regionally, there were clear shifts).
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Ultimately, one common takeaway has been that supposed voting blocs are not monolithic, making it difficult to predict how the political landscape will shape up going forward.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Tim is a staff writer at The Week and has contributed to Bedford and Bowery and The New York Transatlantic. He is a graduate of Occidental College and NYU's journalism school. Tim enjoys writing about baseball, Europe, and extinct megafauna. He lives in New York City.
-
The Icelandic women’s strike 50 years onIn The Spotlight The nation is ‘still no paradise’ for women, say campaigners
-
Mall World: why are people dreaming about a shopping centre?Under The Radar Thousands of strangers are dreaming about the same thing and no one sure why
-
Why scientists are attempting nuclear fusionThe Explainer Harnessing the reaction that powers the stars could offer a potentially unlimited source of carbon-free energy, and the race is hotting up
-
Proposed Trump-Putin talks in Budapest on holdSpeed Read Trump apparently has no concrete plans to meet with Putin for Ukraine peace talks
-
Bolivia elects centrist over far-right presidential rivalSpeed Read Relative political unknown Rodrigo Paz, a centrist senator, was elected president
-
Madagascar president in hiding, refuses to resignSpeed Read Andry Rajoelina fled the country amid Gen Z protests and unrest
-
Sanae Takaichi: Japan’s Iron Lady set to be the country’s first woman prime ministerIn the Spotlight Takaichi is a member of Japan’s conservative, nationalist Liberal Democratic Party
-
Israel, Hamas agree to first step of Trump peace planSpeed Read Israel’s military pulls back in Gaza amid prisoner exchange
-
Israel intercepts 2nd Gaza aid flotilla in a weekSpeed Read The Israeli military intercepted a flotilla of nine boats with 145 activists aboard along with medical and food aid
-
Japan poised to get first woman prime ministerSpeed Read The ruling Liberal Democratic Party elected former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi
-
Israel and Hamas meet on hostages, Trump’s planSpeed Read Hamas accepted the general terms of Trump’s 20-point plan, including the release of all remaining hostages
