Just how much leverage does Joe Manchin actually have?


Generally considered the most moderate Democrat in the 50-50 Senate, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) appears to have a significant amount of power in the upper chamber. Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) has jokingly referred to him as "your highness," while Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), per Politico, simply called him "the man."
Manchin, for his part, plays it down, suggesting to Politico that his colleagues "just kid around ... I didn't lobby for this position, I didn't pick it." Still, he may wind up playing an outsized legislative role in the coming years. But what about when he's up for re-election in 2024?
In a piece for National Review, Kevin Williamson makes the case that Manchin is not a "king-maker," and is actually quite vulnerable. On the one hand, Williamson writes, he's a Democrat in a Republican state that overwhelmingly backed former President Donald Trump, which means the GOP will likely view his seat as winnable in 2024. Democrats, meanwhile, could turn on Manchin if he joins Republicans in opposition to major pieces of Democratic legislation, potentially setting up a "bruising primary challenge."
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Williamson, therefore, thinks Manchin should actually switch parties now. In doing so, he would increase his shot at keeping his seat and, with his interest in "energy, national-security issues, and a more activist health-care policy," he "could provide a few bridges between a few important factional divides in the GOP."
The unconventional idea certainly has some critics, both because other analysts believe Manchin does indeed have a lot more leverage than Williamson is giving him credit for, and because they think his political agenda isn't congruent with the GOP. Read more at National Review and Politico. Tim O'Donnell
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Tim is a staff writer at The Week and has contributed to Bedford and Bowery and The New York Transatlantic. He is a graduate of Occidental College and NYU's journalism school. Tim enjoys writing about baseball, Europe, and extinct megafauna. He lives in New York City.
-
October 13 editorial cartoons
Cartoons Monday's political cartoons include Donald Trump's consolation prize, government workers during shutdown, and more
-
Can Gaza momentum help end the war in Ukraine?
Today's Big Question Zelenskyy’s request for long-range Tomahawk missiles hints at ‘warming relations’ between Ukraine and US
-
The Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners being released
The Explainer Triumphant Donald Trump addresses the Israeli parliament as families on both sides of the Gaza war reunite with their loved ones
-
Trump DOJ indicts New York AG Letitia James
Speed Read New York Attorney General Letitia James was indicted as Trump’s Justice Department pursues charges against his political opponents
-
Judge blocks Trump’s Guard deployment in Chicago
Speed Read The president is temporarily blocked from federalizing the Illinois National Guard or deploying any Guard units in the state
-
Trump urges jail for Illinois, Chicago leaders
Speed Read The Texas National Guard begin operations in the Chicago area
-
Bondi stonewalls on Epstein, Comey in Senate face-off
Speed Read Attorney General Pam Bondi denied charges of using the Justice Department in service of Trump’s personal vendettas
-
Court allows Trump’s Texas troops to head to Chicago
Speed Read Trump is ‘using our service members as pawns in his illegal effort to militarize our nation’s cities,’ said Gov. J.B. Pritzker
-
Judge bars Trump’s National Guard moves in Oregon
Speed Read In an emergency hearing, a federal judge blocked President Donald Trump from sending National Guard troops into Portland
-
Museum head ousted after Trump sword gift denial
Speed Read Todd Arrington, who led the Dwight D. Eisenhower Presidential Library and Museum, denied the Trump administration a sword from the collection as a gift for King Charles
-
Trump declares ‘armed conflict’ with drug cartels
speed read This provides a legal justification for recent lethal military strikes on three alleged drug trafficking boats