Just how much leverage does Joe Manchin actually have?


Generally considered the most moderate Democrat in the 50-50 Senate, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) appears to have a significant amount of power in the upper chamber. Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) has jokingly referred to him as "your highness," while Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), per Politico, simply called him "the man."
Manchin, for his part, plays it down, suggesting to Politico that his colleagues "just kid around ... I didn't lobby for this position, I didn't pick it." Still, he may wind up playing an outsized legislative role in the coming years. But what about when he's up for re-election in 2024?
In a piece for National Review, Kevin Williamson makes the case that Manchin is not a "king-maker," and is actually quite vulnerable. On the one hand, Williamson writes, he's a Democrat in a Republican state that overwhelmingly backed former President Donald Trump, which means the GOP will likely view his seat as winnable in 2024. Democrats, meanwhile, could turn on Manchin if he joins Republicans in opposition to major pieces of Democratic legislation, potentially setting up a "bruising primary challenge."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Williamson, therefore, thinks Manchin should actually switch parties now. In doing so, he would increase his shot at keeping his seat and, with his interest in "energy, national-security issues, and a more activist health-care policy," he "could provide a few bridges between a few important factional divides in the GOP."
The unconventional idea certainly has some critics, both because other analysts believe Manchin does indeed have a lot more leverage than Williamson is giving him credit for, and because they think his political agenda isn't congruent with the GOP. Read more at National Review and Politico. Tim O'Donnell
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Tim is a staff writer at The Week and has contributed to Bedford and Bowery and The New York Transatlantic. He is a graduate of Occidental College and NYU's journalism school. Tim enjoys writing about baseball, Europe, and extinct megafauna. He lives in New York City.
-
June 29 editorial cartoons
Cartoons Sunday's political cartoons include the AI genie, Iran saving face, and bad language bombs
-
A tall ship adventure in the Mediterranean
The Week Recommends Sailing aboard this schooner and exploring Portugal, Spain and Monaco is a 'magical' experience
-
How drone warfare works
The Explainer From Ukraine to Iran, it has become clear that unmanned aircraft are rapidly revolutionising modern warfare
-
Canadian man dies in ICE custody
Speed Read A Canadian citizen with permanent US residency died at a federal detention center in Miami
-
GOP races to revise megabill after Senate rulings
Speed Read A Senate parliamentarian ruled that several changes to Medicaid included in Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" were not permissible
-
Supreme Court lets states ax Planned Parenthood funds
Speed Read The court ruled that Planned Parenthood cannot sue South Carolina over the state's effort to deny it funding
-
Trump plans Iran talks, insists nuke threat gone
Speed Read 'The war is done' and 'we destroyed the nuclear,' said President Trump
-
Trump embraces NATO after budget vow, charm offensive
Speed Read The president reversed course on his longstanding skepticism of the trans-Atlantic military alliance
-
Trump judge pick told DOJ to defy courts, lawyer says
Speed Read Emil Bove, a top Justice Department official nominated by Trump for a lifetime seat, stands accused of encouraging government lawyers to mislead the courts and defy judicial orders
-
Mamdani upsets Cuomo in NYC mayoral primary
Speed Read Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani beat out Andrew Cuomo in New York City's Democratic mayoral primary
-
Supreme Court clears third-country deportations
Speed Read The court allowed Trump to temporarily resume deporting migrants to countries they aren't from