What happens if TikTok is banned?

TikTok may be on its last legs in the United States. The app, which is owned by the Chinese company ByteDance, is on the brink of being banned in the U.S. after President Joe Biden signed the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (PAFACA) on April 24. The bill will ban the video-sharing app from being downloaded in the United States unless ByteDance sells TikTok within the next 12 months. 

PAFACA is officially described as an act to "protect the national security of the United States from the threat posed by foreign adversary-controlled applications." However, one group is heavily criticizing the government's move to ban TikTok: content creators. 

Many content creators across the United States rely heavily on TikTok for their livelihoods, at a scale that some people may not realize; Goldman Sachs estimates that the modern creator economy is worth $250 billion. Will banning TikTok doom this sector of the economy? 

Subscribe to The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

What did the commentators say? 

TikTok's ban would "threaten the income of at least tens of thousands of people in the U.S. and leave them feeling outraged," Louise Matsakis said for Wired. Given the number of people who rely on TikTok for large portions of their income, a ban on the app would be an "extinction-level event" for creators because "most of them do not have sustainable followings on other platforms," James Nord, the founder of the influencer marketing platform Fohr, said to Wired. 

While TikTokers are currently working on building up followings on other platforms, the "big money is still made on TikTok," Prasuna Cheruku, who runs the talent management company Diversifi Talent, said to NPR. The more well-off creators on the site can make "$1,000 up to $15, $20,000 [per video] depending on the creator," said Cheruku, and the "majority of the creators I work with are very stressed out and anxious it'll all go away."

This could also create dire situations for TikTokers who make less. While the highest-grossing TikTok influencers "earn an average yearly salary of $121,765," the median salary for a TikTok creator is "only somewhere between $15,000 and $25,000," Nhari Djan said for the Observer. Overall, around half of TikTok's creators earn less than $15,000. 

And while TikTok's ban would obviously affect U.S.-based creators, it could have ripple effects in other countries, too. A TikTok ban in the United States "would have a huge effect on me," Maks Majewski, a British TikTok creator with 2.8 million followers, said to Newsweek. Even though Majewski lives in the U.K., a "large proportion of my followers are based in the U.S. which would basically more than halve my following if the ban does go through." His income is "based from views and campaigns which would eliminate both if [the ban] does happen."

Not everyone is so convinced that TikTok's demise would be devastating for creators, though. Two years ago, it "would have been devastating," Karat Financial co-founder and co-CEO Eric Wei said to TechCrunch. But he is now less convinced of this because the "amount of time creators have had to prepare for this moment has made them better poised to weather the storm." Beyond this, TikTok's potential downfall is "not an overnight ban. Creators still have about a year to transfer their following, so I am optimistic," Harry Gestetner, the co-founder and CEO of creator monetization platform Fanfix, said to TechCrunch. 

What next? 

It will be at least April 2025 before the American ban on TikTok goes into effect, but ByteDance is already suing the federal government to try and stop PAFACA's implementation. The lawsuit "may be setting up what could be a protracted legal fight over TikTok’s future in the United States," said The Associated Press.

However, court challenges will likely prove to be a "tricky legal case" for TikTok, said The Verge. It is almost certain that these legal challenges would focus on alleged violations of First Amendment free speech rights. But this "won't be an easy fight since judges often hesitate to make decisions of national security importance where the legislature has so forcefully weighed in." 

And even if ByteDance were to find a buyer for TikTok, it would need the Chinese government's permission to sell the brand. This could throw another wrench into the ongoing saga.