Republicans and Democrats vastly overestimate how much the other side supports political violence, paper finds


Americans, including political scientists and pundits, are probably overestimating how much their political opponents support partisan acts of violence, a new study from researchers at Stanford University, Dartmouth University, and University of California, Santa Barbara suggests.
After conducting three large survey experiments, the authors found that previous research indicating that up to 44 percent of the American public approves of politically-motivated violence in hypothetical scenarios has vastly overestimated the situation. That estimate may be somewhere between 30 percent to 900 percent too high.
In reality, the authors contend, nearly all respondents, whether Democrat or Republican, support criminally charging suspects who commit acts of political violence. That seems to be more in line with real world data — only a little more more than 1 percent of hate crimes in the United States are politically motivated.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The disconnect likely stems from the way other surveys have been conducted, Dartmouth's Sean Westwood writes. For instance, some of the questions are unclear about what "violence" means and fail to distinguish between violence and political violence. The surveys are also sometimes designed so that most of the available answers indicate support for political violence, which means it's likely that disengaged respondents may overstate their approval.
To gain a more accurate reading, the authors suggest measuring support for political violence by providing respondents with specific examples of such actions, benchmarking "results against general support for all violence," and capturing "support for crimes that vary in severity."
Westwood did clarify that the authors were not arguing political violence is a nonexistent threat; on the contrary, they believe vigilance is necessary. But for that vigilance to be successful, it's important to have a more accurate understanding of the public's attitude. Check out the research here.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Tim is a staff writer at The Week and has contributed to Bedford and Bowery and The New York Transatlantic. He is a graduate of Occidental College and NYU's journalism school. Tim enjoys writing about baseball, Europe, and extinct megafauna. He lives in New York City.
-
July 20 editorial cartoons
Cartoons Sunday’s political cartoons include AI replacing workers, and Donald Trump trying to divert media attention away from the Epstein files
-
5 suspiciously good cartoons about the Epstein files
Cartoons Artists take on the relationship between Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein
-
A glorious Greek island without the 'swank'
The Week Recommends Lesbos doesn't welcome 'hoards' of tourists, but is 'magnificent' and worth exploring
-
Australian woman found guilty of mushroom murders
speed read Erin Patterson murdered three of her ex-husband's relatives by serving them toxic death cap mushrooms
-
Combs convicted on 2 of 5 charges, denied bail
Speed Read Sean 'Diddy' Combs was acquitted of the more serious charges of racketeering and sex trafficking
-
Sniper kills 2 Idaho firefighters in ambush
Speed Read A man started a wildfire, then fired a rifle at first responders when they arrived
-
Weinstein convicted of sex crime in retrial
Speed Read The New York jury delivered a mixed and partial verdict at the disgraced Hollywood producer's retrial
-
'King of the Hill' actor shot dead outside home
speed read Jonathan Joss was fatally shot by a neighbor who was 'yelling violent homophobic slurs,' says his husband
-
DOJ, Boulder police outline attacker's confession
speed read Mohamed Sabry Soliman planned the attack for a year and 'wanted them all to die'
-
Assailant burns Jewish pedestrians in Boulder
speed read Eight people from the Jewish group were hospitalized after a man threw Molotov cocktails in a 'targeted act of violence'
-
Driver rams van into crowd at Liverpool FC parade
speed read 27 people were hospitalized following the attack