Every moment is a Rubio moment
Marco Rubio is completely dominating the media's "moments" — just not the polls
Marco Rubio is going to have a moment in tonight's debate. You can just feel it. He and his cheerleaders have been waiting for the Rubio moment, that instant when he begins consolidating non-Trump support in the Republican Party and makes his dashing rise to the top of the race. If you average the polls, he's currently third nationally among Republicans at 11.3 percent. He's polling third in Iowa at 13 percent. And he's just barely ahead of Jon Kasich for second in New Hampshire at 13.2 percent. With one of his chief antagonists, Rand Paul, excluded from the next debate, it's finally his time. The Rubio moment is here.
Or maybe it's here again? No one is quite sure.
Two months ago, The Indy Star declared, "The Rubio moment has arrived." At that time he was polling third in Iowa, with 12.8 percent and third in New Hampshire at 10.3 percent. The Star seemed to be answering The Washington Post's question from two weeks earlier, "Has the Rubio moment arrived?" (Iowa: 10.2 percent; N.H.: 8.3 percent) and to confirm the Wall Street Journal's contention that Rubio was moving to "seize the moment." And yet, three weeks before that, Real Clear Politics said that Rubio's "moment had arrived" (Iowa: 7.7 percent; N.H.: 7 percent) And two weeks before that, Politico noticed that Marco Rubio was already having "another moment," one reminiscent of the moment when he was second in the national polls, in May 2015.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Since the press last declared his latest moment, Rubio is up 0.2 percent in Iowa and 2.9 percent in New Hampshire and down 0.5 percent nationally. In that same time Ted Cruz is up 14.4 percent in Iowa and 9.9 percent nationally. As of Jan. 10, the supposedly-moribund Bush campaign has gained as much support in New Hampshire as Rubio even though the nation has been enduring two months of Rubio moments. Oh, and we haven't even dealt with Trump yet.
Rubio has the sympathetic coverage and interest of the Beltway media. He has basked in open cheering from influential conservative outlets like National Review Online and The Weekly Standard. He's collecting endorsements from conservative congressmen. He and his allies have spent an enormous amount of money — second only to pro-Jeb Bush groups — trying to blunt the rise of Chris Christie, John Kasich, and Ted Cruz. And yet every poll for months in the first two nominating contents has him between 10 and 14 percent. He's had 15 moments in the media over the past three months. And 15 weeks of same in the polls.
Maybe we should all hold off on declaring the coming good fortune for Marco Rubio unless and until the RNC rewrites the rules to award the nomination to the candidate who thrashes wildly while remaining in third place the longest.
And definitely don't pay attention to the fact that Marco Rubio's fans, who had spent many golden Rubio-moments exulting in their man's triumph over his former mentor, are now whining to the press about the funny ads coming from Right to Rise, a Jeb Bush-aligned Super PAC.
Everyone knows! Except the 86 to 90 percent of Republican primary voters who routinely don't name him as their top choice. The whole premise of Rubio's candidacy is that his fresh face and new way of thinking are guaranteed to beat stale legacy candidates like Hillary Clinton. And yet, he needs to be protected from Bush.
Of course, it's not all bad news for Rubio. He still has decently high favorability ratings. He has a high ceiling. Most Republicans, when polled, can imagine supporting him. I still think he's a not a bad bet, if you're a chancer.
But Rubio has three serious problems.
The first is immigration reform. Rubio's treasured attempt at a domestic legislative accomplishment was the Chuck Schumer-supported Gang of Eight bill. The bill would have massively increased legal immigration levels and promised vainly to maybe stop 20 percent or so of illegal immigration. Republicans overwhelmingly hate it.
The second problem for Rubio is that he can come across as a little bit of a lightweight. He communicates hope and optimism in a time when Republicans think the nation needs a gritty reboot.
The third problem is that other candidates, particularly Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush, seemed to have identified Rubio's first two problems.
None of these problems are solvable. Even on seeming like a lightweight, Rubio will struggle, mostly because the two issues where he has tried to be serious in his career are immigration reform and foreign policy. We know the problems on immigration. But on foreign policy, Rubio is more faithful to George W. Bush's unpopular policies in the Middle East than George, much less Jeb, ever was.
I would not advise Rubio to try to take advantage of Rand Paul's absence at Thursday's debate by saying, "I may not have been swift enough to realize I was getting rolled by Chuck Schumer, but here's my plan to simultaneously defeat three sides of the Syrian civil war, and Russia too."
Any moment now!
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Michael Brendan Dougherty is senior correspondent at TheWeek.com. He is the founder and editor of The Slurve, a newsletter about baseball. His work has appeared in The New York Times Magazine, ESPN Magazine, Slate and The American Conservative.
-
'Musk's reliance on China draws rising scrutiny'
Today's Newspapers A roundup of the headlines from the US front pages
By The Week Staff Published
-
Biba: the story of a 'legendary emporium'
The Week Recommends Brand's 60th anniversary is being marked with retrospective celebrating the 'iconic shop's cultural importance'
By Adrienne Wyper, The Week UK Published
-
How the Russia-Ukraine conflict has spread to Africa
The Explainer Ukraine is attempting to strengthen its alliances on the continent to counter Russia's growing presence
By Richard Windsor, The Week UK Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Xi-Biden meeting: what's in it for both leaders?
Today's Big Question Two superpowers seek to stabilise relations amid global turmoil but core issues of security, trade and Taiwan remain
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published