Democrats are set up for victory in 2018 — and trouble in 2020
The party is divided. That's a boon this November — and a potential boondoggle in 2020.
Division in a political party can be a blessing or a curse. And sometimes, it can be both.
In the Democratic Party's struggle to retake the House of Representatives in November 2018, division is a very good thing indeed. But whether it will remain so as the party tries to defeat President Trump's presumed bid for re-election in 2020 is another matter entirely.
First, the good news for Dems: Less than six months out from the midterm elections, lack of consensus about the future direction of the party allows the Democrats to adapt to regional and ideological differences in the electorate. So, in a liberal, wealthy suburb that is appalled by President Trump, a progressive congressional candidate who describes herself as a leader of the "resistance" against incipient authoritarianism might be the perfect Democrat. Meanwhile, in a swing district in the Midwest that has a history of voting Democratic but sided with Trump in 2016, a candidate who combines an economically populist message with a more moderate one on cultural issues (guns, abortion, transgender rights) might be the perfect fit.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
That's exactly what we've seen in a series of special elections in which the Democratic candidate has prevailed. As The New York Times notes, these moderates tend to ignore Trump, distance themselves from House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, downplay cultural and social issues, and lead with a message about economic decline and the burden of health-care costs (while denying that instituting a single-payer system is a viable option).
Conor Lamb narrowly won a special election in western Pennsylvania with a message like this. The approach was perfectly tailored to voters in his district, who had gone for Trump by 20 points. It's an electoral strategy that's being emulated in similar districts around the country, from Arkansas to New Jersey and California, while candidates in more solidly progressive areas run on a less ambivalently liberal message.
That's the distinctive strength of a diverse party, shape-shifting to meet the demands and expectations of voters in different regions of a big country filled with dissension and disagreement. And it will very likely deliver Democrats the net gain of 23 seats that they need to seize control of the House this fall.
But that flexibility comes with its own problems, too.
For the party's activist base, more energized than at perhaps any time since the early 1970s, it's a source of frustration. As the Times explains, these more consistently progressive voters worry that the election of more centrist candidates could impede efforts to pass sweeping left-leaning legislation if they take narrow control of the House. (It could also make it more difficult to impeach the president.)
This conflict is playing out in an especially rancorous way in Minnesota, where Politico reports that the sons of the late progressive Democrat Sen. Paul Wellstone have been ousted from the governing board of Wellstone Action, an influential training group that was founded after their father's death. The reason for their ouster? Activists within the organization opposed the ambitions of the brothers to try and win back the votes of the mostly white rural and working-class Minnesotans who cast ballots for Trump in 2016. (Trump came within 1.5 percentage points of carrying the state. If he had done so, that would have made Minnesota the fourth state in the Democrats' famed "blue wall" to flip to the Republicans, after Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.)
Instead of fighting to bring these one-time Trump voters back to the party, the Democratic activists at Wellstone Action would rather have the party rely more heavily on consistently progressive urban and suburban voters, whom they hope to rally in full-throated appeals to "communities of color and the LGBTQI community."
Whether this makes sense in the context of the Minnesota electorate will become clearer over the next few election cycles. But however that specific feud gets settled, the underlying conflict is bound to boil over in the country as a whole as the party heads into the 2020 presidential contest. And this could be disastrous for Democratic efforts to make Trump a one-term president.
It's one thing for a party to take advantage of its disagreements to strategically splinter at the local and state level in a midterm election. That's a variation on the classic military strategy of dividing and conquering one's opponents. But a party heading into a nationwide vote has no choice but to take a different approach. A presidential nomination contest can only have one victor. During the 2020 Democratic primaries the party will need to decide which person and which agenda will represent the party as a whole.
Will it be an economic populist who aims to woo back some wayward Trump voters? Or will it be a culture warrior from the left who's convinced that those who were seduced by the Republican in 2016 have no place in a tolerant, multicultural Democratic Party? Will it be a candidate who forges solidarity across ethnic, racial, and gender lines? Or one who works to mobilize minority groups while subtly (or perhaps not so subtly) conveying the message that certain other groups (especially white, rural, and working-class voters) are not welcome?
Such tensions will be exceedingly difficult to paper over as Democrats try to decide on their standard-bearer. That's when the party's divisions — a source of great strength in the midterms — could well become the source of its greatest vulnerability.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Damon Linker is a senior correspondent at TheWeek.com. He is also a former contributing editor at The New Republic and the author of The Theocons and The Religious Test.
-
Why Bhutan hopes tourists will put a smile back on its face
Under The Radar The 'kingdom of happiness' is facing economic problems and unprecedented emigration
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
7 beautiful towns to visit in Switzerland during the holidays
The Week Recommends Find bliss in these charming Swiss locales that blend the traditional with the modern
By Catherine Garcia, The Week US Published
-
The Week contest: Werewolf bill
Puzzles and Quizzes
By The Week US Published
-
US election: who the billionaires are backing
The Explainer More have endorsed Kamala Harris than Donald Trump, but among the 'ultra-rich' the split is more even
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
US election: where things stand with one week to go
The Explainer Harris' lead in the polls has been narrowing in Trump's favour, but her campaign remains 'cautiously optimistic'
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Trump okay?
Today's Big Question Former president's mental fitness and alleged cognitive decline firmly back in the spotlight after 'bizarre' town hall event
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The life and times of Kamala Harris
The Explainer The vice-president is narrowly leading the race to become the next US president. How did she get to where she is now?
By The Week UK Published
-
Will 'weirdly civil' VP debate move dial in US election?
Today's Big Question 'Diametrically opposed' candidates showed 'a lot of commonality' on some issues, but offered competing visions for America's future and democracy
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
1 of 6 'Trump Train' drivers liable in Biden bus blockade
Speed Read Only one of the accused was found liable in the case concerning the deliberate slowing of a 2020 Biden campaign bus
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Biden, Trump urge calm after assassination attempt
Speed Reads A 20-year-old gunman grazed Trump's ear and fatally shot a rally attendee on Saturday
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published