The Afghan government has confirmed reports that Taliban leader Mullah Omar died two years ago, news that is likely to threaten fragile peace talks as well as the future of the terrorist group.
Rumours of Omar's death have circulated for years, but a White House spokesperson said the US government believed that the latest report was "credible".
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The apparent confirmation of his death comes at a turbulent time for the Taliban, which has splintered as conflicting ideologies have emerged.
"Different Taliban groups are breaking away from the central Taliban organisation," Graeme Smith, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group in Kabul told Radio Free Europe. "His death is going to fuel the factionalism that we are already seeing."
The Taliban has also been struggling to keep its militants – many of whom were frustrated with the lack of interaction with their leader – from defecting to Islamic State and other rival Islamist groups, say experts.
If their leader is dead, the militants' religious vows of loyalty would be void, and they will "have no reason to stick it out anymore," Michael Kugelman, an Afghanistan expert with the Wilson Center in Washington, told Al Jazeera America. "[IS] should be very happy about this announcement," he said. "I think this could really drive up recruitment in Afghanistan and Pakistan."
The announcement will also intensify the battle for control within the Taliban. "There is already a nasty power struggle, " says Smith. "That will get more vicious after Omar's death."
Local reports suggest that the group's deputy, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansur, has already been appointed as the new leader. But a senior Afghan Taliban commander has told Reuters that group's leadership was "at a crossroads" and resolving the succession issue may take time.
What it means for the peace talks
President Ashraf Ghani's has staked his political reputation on controversial negotiations aimed at ending decades of war with the group. Announcing Omar's death, the Afghan government said it believed the grounds for peace talks "are more paved now than before" and called on all armed opposition groups to "seize the opportunity” and join the peace process.
But there is growing confusion about the Taliban's willingness to enter into talks with the government. Earlier this month a statement purportedly from Omar expressed support for the negotiations, but the Taliban's official spokesman today said the group was "not aware" of the latest round of peace talks due to take place in Pakistan on Friday, indicating they would not take part.
Many have also questioned the timing of the government's announcements of Omar's death. "My sense is that someone wanted to sabotage the peace talks," says Kugelman. "Why would the Afghan government, which so deeply wants peace, make this announcement now? It's a mystery."
-
China and Taiwan's war of words ahead of anniversary paradeUnder The Radar Neighbours both claim to have led the fighting during World War Two
-
Epstein files: Maxwell courts a pardonFeature A new prison transcript shows Ghislaine Maxwell praising Trump as 'a gentleman' while denying his involvement in the Epstein scandal
-
Pentagon readies military deployment in ChicagoFeature The Pentagon is preparing to deploy thousands of Illinois National Guard members to Chicago after Trump threatened to send troops into other major cities
-
China is silently expanding its influence in American citiesUnder the Radar New York City and San Francisco, among others, have reportedly been targeted
-
Kabul braces for a waterless futureTHE EXPLAINER A confluence of manmade and environmental factors makes the Afghan city the first modern capital to risk running out of groundwater
-
How China uses 'dark fleets' to circumvent trade sanctionsThe Explainer The fleets are used to smuggle goods like oil and fish
-
One year after mass protests, why are Kenyans taking to the streets again?today's big question More than 60 protesters died during demonstrations in 2024
-
What happens if tensions between India and Pakistan boil over?TODAY'S BIG QUESTION As the two nuclear-armed neighbors rattle their sabers in the wake of a terrorist attack on the contested Kashmir region, experts worry that the worst might be yet to come
-
Why Russia removed the Taliban's terrorist designationThe Explainer Russia had designated the Taliban as a terrorist group over 20 years ago
-
Inside the Israel-Turkey geopolitical dance across SyriaTHE EXPLAINER As Syria struggles in the wake of the Assad regime's collapse, its neighbors are carefully coordinating to avoid potential military confrontations
-
'Like a sound from hell': Serbia and sonic weaponsThe Explainer Half a million people sign petition alleging Serbian police used an illegal 'sound cannon' to disrupt anti-government protests
