Does hot weather really fuel violent crime?
As the mercury climbs, violent crime increases, according to most research. But there may be some important exceptions
Conventional wisdom holds that violent crime increases during hot weather. Even our language is peppered with references to "hotheads" whose anger "simmers" until they either "lose their cool" and "blow up" or finally "cool down." Researchers, however, have started to question just how meaningful the link is between hot weather and aggressive behavior. Does violent crime really increase in hot weather?
Yes. Research supports the link between violence and heat: Many studies have concluded that violence does rise in hot weather, says Brandon Keim in Wired. Recently, Florida State University researchers found that, over two years, violent assaults consistently increased in Minneapolis, Minn., as temperatures rose toward the 80s. They attributed the change partly to "social opportunity" — when the temperature goes up, more people spend more time outside.
"The Hazy Science of Hot Weather and Violence"
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
At very high temperatures, crime drops: Even in research that shows violent crimes increasing in warmer weather, there's an upper limit, says James Alan Fox in The Boston Globe. "The rate of violence tends to decline when temperatures reach the 90s." When it gets that hot, people tend to withdraw and seek shelter from extreme heat by staying at home, and out of trouble.
"Heat wave has chilling effect on violent crime"
But global climate change could make things worse: The "heat hypothesis" is backed up by U.S. crime and weather statistics since 1950, says Iowa State University researcher Craig Anderson. And looking forward, we can expect murder and assault rates to rise by 34 crimes per 100,000 people for every eight degrees Fahrenheit the Earth's temperature rises. "When people get hot, they behave more aggressively. There's nothing new there and we're all finding the same thing."
"Iowa State researchers present study on how global climate change affects violence"
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Will California's EV mandate survive Trump, SCOTUS challenge?
Today's Big Question The Golden State's climate goal faces big obstacles
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
'Underneath the noise, however, there’s an existential crisis'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
2024: the year of distrust in science
In the Spotlight Science and politics do not seem to mix
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published
-
Why Assad fell so fast
The Explainer The newly liberated Syria is in an incredibly precarious position, but it's too soon to succumb to defeatist gloom
By The Week UK Published
-
Romania's election rerun
The Explainer Shock result of presidential election has been annulled following allegations of Russian interference
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Russia's shadow war in Europe
Talking Point Steering clear of open conflict, Moscow is slowly ratcheting up the pressure on Nato rivals to see what it can get away with.
By The Week UK Published
-
Cutting cables: the war being waged under the sea
In the Spotlight Two undersea cables were cut in the Baltic sea, sparking concern for the global network
By The Week UK Published
-
The nuclear threat: is Vladimir Putin bluffing?
Talking Point Kremlin's newest ballistic missile has some worried for Nato nations
By The Week UK Published
-
Russia vows retaliation for Ukrainian missile strikes
Speed Read Ukraine's forces have been using U.S.-supplied, long-range ATCMS missiles to hit Russia
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
Has the Taliban banned women from speaking?
Today's Big Question 'Rambling' message about 'bizarre' restriction joins series of recent decrees that amount to silencing of Afghanistan's women
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Cuba's energy crisis
The Explainer Already beset by a host of issues, the island nation is struggling with nationwide blackouts
By Rebekah Evans, The Week UK Published