The great British crack-up
Could Brexit spell the end of the United Kingdom — leaving "Little England" to go it alone?

Could Brexit spell the end of the United Kingdom — leaving "Little England" to go it alone? Here's everything you need to know:
Why might the U.K. break up?
Britain's decision to leave the European Union has left the kingdom's four countries deeply divided. While England and Wales voted for Brexit last June, both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU, by majorities of 62 percent and 56 percent, respectively. Now faced with being dragged out of Europe, both are seriously reconsidering their historic position within the U.K. In March, the Scottish Parliament voted for the right to hold a second independence referendum, which could lead to Scotland seceding from the U.K. and rejoining the EU. Irish nationalists are demanding their own border poll on unification with the Republic of Ireland. If the Scots and Irish choose independence, England and Wales will stand alone. Ironically, the vote for Brexit was supposedly a vote for a resurgent Britain — one that would wrest back power and national pride from Brussels. Instead, says Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, it may have triggered "the beginning of the end of the United Kingdom."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
When was the U.K. formed?
The British Isles have a complicated history, filled with conquests, rebellions, and reconquests. But the loose origins of the U.K. date back to the early 10th century, when the Anglo-Saxon King Athelstan unified England's disparate kingdoms and secured the reluctant allegiance of the Scots and the Welsh. But the relationship between England, Scotland, and Wales only became official in 1707, when the Acts of Union formally created "One Kingdom by the Name of Great Britain." That kingdom merged with Ireland in 1801 to create the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. When most of Ireland seceded in 1922, with just six Ulster counties in the north remaining under British control, that left the U.K. as we know it — stretching from Land's End in the south to John o'Groat's at the tip of Scotland.
Could a 'Scoxit' be next?
If Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has her way, yes. The country held its first independence referendum in 2014, when 55 percent of Scots voted to stay in the U.K. Sturgeon said she would hold another only if there was a "material change" in Scotland's circumstances — such as Scotland being removed from the EU against its democratic will. Scotland currently receives more than $260 million a year in EU funding, and sends about $16 billion in exports to the Eurozone; in addition, many Scots resent the ruling conservatives in London far more than they do the bureaucrats in Brussels. To hold another plebiscite, though, Sturgeon needs the permission of British Prime Minister Theresa May, who refuses to give it before Brexit negotiations have been completed in 2019. But momentum for independence is growing.
Why is that?
The unionists' most powerful argument for staying in the U.K. — that independence threatened Scotland's EU membership — has been flipped on its head by Brexit. Independence, though, would have its own economic costs: It would mean establishing a real border between Scotland and England, from the Solway to the Tweed, cutting the Scots off from their biggest market — and at a time when the country's income from dwindling North Sea oil has plunged 97 percent. During the first referendum campaign, says Aberdeen University's Michael Keating, Scots were told independence would be a leap in the dark, while staying in the U.K. would mean economic stability. "This time," says Keating, "they'll be offered two leaps in the dark."
What about Northern Ireland?
While Westminster frets about Scotland, Northern Ireland is quietly undergoing its own constitutional turmoil. Northern Ireland doesn't want to lose billions in regional development and farming funds from the EU — though it depends on billions in U.K. subsidies too. But Brexit poses another disturbing consequence for the Irish: the prospect of a hard, 300-mile land border between the North and independent South, which remains a member of the EU. That border wouldn't just disrupt trade and the jobs of the 30,000 people who commute between the two countries every day, but could also jeopardize the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which ended the region's three-decade Troubles. The hope was that the divisions between North and South "would eventually become redundant and float away like a sticking plaster from a wound that has healed," says Irish historian Roy Foster. "All this has been destroyed by Brexit."
Will the U.K. break up?
British politics are too volatile now for anyone to make reliable predictions. But before 2011, nationalists were just a noisy minority in Scotland. Today, they are a powerful force, and are on the cusp of a second historic independence referendum in just three years. Brits seem pessimistic about staying together: More than half think the U.K. will no longer exist in a decade in its current form, according to a BBC poll. "Historical change is like an avalanche," says British historian Norman Davies. "The starting point is a snow-covered mountainside that looks solid. All the changes take place under the surface and are rather invisible. But something is coming. What is impossible is to say when."
The future of 'Little England'
The breakup of the U.K. would raise some immediate questions for the English. Would the former world power retain its permanent seat — officially held by the U.K. — on the United Nations Security Council, and its influential positions within NATO and the World Bank? With the political and financial hub of London still in English hands, the nation's GDP would likely remain in the world's top 10. The English would also keep their military capabilities — though they would face troubling questions over their nuclear weapons, which are currently based in Scotland with no viable location to re-house them in England. After all of that, "Little England" would face its own identity crisis. Would people in Manchester or Bristol consider themselves English, or British? Would they continue to sing the U.K. national anthem at England's football games, or sing the English anthem, "Land of Hope and Glory," instead? In the post-Brexit era, says British historian Norman Davies, the English "are appallingly confused about who they are."
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
The backlash against ChatGPT's Studio Ghibli filter
The Explainer The studio's charming style has become part of a nebulous social media trend
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
Why are student loan borrowers falling behind on payments?
Today's Big Question Delinquencies surge as the Trump administration upends the program
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Not there yet: The frustrations of the pocket AI
Feature Apple rushes to roll out its ‘Apple Intelligence’ features but fails to deliver on promises
By The Week US Published
-
'Like a sound from hell': Serbia and sonic weapons
The Explainer Half a million people sign petition alleging Serbian police used an illegal 'sound cannon' to disrupt anti-government protests
By Abby Wilson Published
-
The arrest of the Philippines' former president leaves the country's drug war in disarray
In the Spotlight Rodrigo Duterte was arrested by the ICC earlier this month
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
Ukrainian election: who could replace Zelenskyy?
The Explainer Donald Trump's 'dictator' jibe raises pressure on Ukraine to the polls while the country is under martial law
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Why Serbian protesters set off smoke bombs in parliament
THE EXPLAINER Ongoing anti-corruption protests erupted into full view this week as Serbian protesters threw the country's legislature into chaos
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Who is the Hat Man? 'Shadow people' and sleep paralysis
In Depth 'Sleep demons' have plagued our dreams throughout the centuries, but the explanation could be medical
By The Week Staff Published
-
Why Assad fell so fast
The Explainer The newly liberated Syria is in an incredibly precarious position, but it's too soon to succumb to defeatist gloom
By The Week UK Published
-
Romania's election rerun
The Explainer Shock result of presidential election has been annulled following allegations of Russian interference
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Russia's shadow war in Europe
Talking Point Steering clear of open conflict, Moscow is slowly ratcheting up the pressure on Nato rivals to see what it can get away with.
By The Week UK Published