Would Trump's tariff proposals lift the US economy or break it?

Call it the war over trade wars. Economists are warning the "price of imported manufactured goods would rise significantly" and hurt American pocketbooks if Donald Trump returned to the White House and enacted new tariffs, Axios said. "What it means for U.S. consumers is obviously higher prices," said Peterson Institute's Mary Lovely. But Trump's allies are aiming to undo the "China shock" that outsourced manufacturing jobs a generation ago. "Washington should, in fact, seek to decouple its economy from China's," said former Trump adviser Robert O'Brien.

The debate comes amid the GOP's "near-complete abandonment" of its Reagan-era free-market ideals, said The New York Times. The Republican platform now pooh-poohs a "blind faith in the siren song of globalism," while Trump has suggested tariffs of 10% on most imports — and up to 60% on Chinese-made goods. "It's definitely a more populist approach," said one analyst. But other experts are skeptical. "A policy that includes tariffs and trade blockages are all highly inflationary," said the American Enterprise Institute's Steven Kamin.

'Less room for damaging policies'

"Trump's economic platform hasn't attracted the level of scrutiny that it deserves," John Cassidy said in The New Yorker. During his first administration, Trump launched new tariffs frequently and the economy didn't crater. Based on that, his business supporters seem to think "things would work out fine" the second time around. The problem? Trump would be facing a "very different economy" than the one he oversaw in 2017. Interest rates are higher, unemployment lower and the budget deficit has skyrocketed. Now there is "much less room for damaging policies of the sort associated with Trumponomics."

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"The bogeyman of Trumponomics may be more terrible than its reality," said The Economist. A full-scale tariff-driven decoupling from China would create "global fallout." But Trump might face fierce opposition from the "traditional wing" of the GOP, and there's a good chance he'll once again bring a Wall Street veteran on board as Treasury Secretary as a "counterweight to fire-breathing protectionists" in his administration. It's hard to know how much room Trump will have to operate: "Checks on his excesses are not automatic."

'Actually smart'

Trump's first-term tariffs were a drag on the economy, said The Wall Street Journal, spoiling what was a "rising tide" for Americans before the pandemic wiped out many of the gains. "Tariffs hurt the common man." One analysis found that those tariffs cost American households $625 a year. Even for Republicans who generally favor the former president's policies, that's cause for caution. "A second Trump term promises to be better than what Bidenomics has wrought, but it isn't risk-free."

"I can't believe how many people are negative on tariffs that are actually smart," Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek. It might be difficult for Joe Biden's allies to make the case against Trump's latest proposals: He did keep Trump's tariffs, after all. The former president, meanwhile, is pointing to history and the predecessor he calls the "tariff king," William McKinley. "McKinley made this country rich," Trump said. Will the policies of 1890 benefit America in the 21st century? We may soon find out.