Has Ukraine's invasion gamble failed?

"Their calculation was to stop our offensive actions in key parts of the Donbas. The result is known… They did not achieve stopping our advance in the Donbas."

With those words, Russian President Vladimir Putin "mocked" Ukrainian attempts to turn the tide of the 30-month-old war, said The Times. 

It had all looked so different four weeks earlier, when Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy launched a cross-border raid into Russia's Kursk region. "Shocking in its audacity", said The Guardian, the attack gained a significant amount of land, as well as the capture of hundreds of Russian soldiers, and was a welcome boost to Ukrainian spirits.

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But with Russia advancing towards Ukraine's strategically important city of Pokrovsk, a critical transport and logistics hub in the eastern Donbas region, it appears Zelenskyy's gamble may not be paying off.

What do the commentators say?

By seizing territory in Kursk, Kyiv hoped it would be able to divert Russian troops away from Pokrovsk, the site of a key railway station and several major roads, said General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces. However, the reverse had happened. 

"The enemy is trying to divert forces from other sectors, but in the Pokrovsk sector, is doing the opposite and only increasing its forces," he said, although Zelenskyy insisted the Kursk attack had slowed the fighting.

For The Times, the result means that while seizing Russian territory was a political success, it now "looks like the wrong kind of distraction when viewed from the Donbas". Losing Pokrovsk would both impact Ukrainian morale on the frontline and give Russian troops access to the whole of the region's Donetsk area, "one of the Kremlin’s long-stated aims". 

"Pokrovsk is a very important hub, a centre of defence. If we lose Pokrovsk, the entire frontline will collapse," military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov told Ukraine's Radio NV. 

What next?

Ukrainian think-tank the Centre for Defence Strategies has predicted the Russians could reach Pokrovsk by mid-September. "For Ukraine, that is not good news," said The Telegraph, adding that Russian troops have already increased their action in areas around the city and are "poised to conquer a significant swathe of Donetsk".    

However, the battle is not yet over and Ukrainian sources have said Russia cannot continue the rate of its advance and is sustaining "record casualties".

Indeed, said The Kyiv Independent, if Moscow deems the price of winning Pokrovsk to be "too high", it could delay an attack on the city and head southwards instead.

Ukrainian action could even spread. The Economist noted reports of a build-up of troops around the Belgorod region of the Russian border and on the northern border of Belarus. But it warned that after the "humiliation" of Kursk, Russia will now be watching for any other attack. "There will be no new element of surprise," it added.