Israeli air strikes in Gaza: why has ceasefire collapsed?

Israel has launched a wave of air strikes on Gaza that have killed hundreds of people and brought the fragile ceasefire with Hamas to the brink of collapse.

The Palestinian Health Ministry in Gaza claims more than 400 people have died, including senior Hamas officials as well as women and children.

While the exact number of casualties has yet to be verified, what is certain is that the "surprise attack" has "shattered a period of relative calm" during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, said The Associated Press. It has also "raised the prospect of a full return to fighting in a 17-month war that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and caused widespread destruction across Gaza".

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What did the commentators say?

The ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas was "already hanging in the balance", said CNN. Phase one, which was agreed in January, saw a cessation in fighting and the release of 25 Israeli hostages and the bodies of eight more in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. It ended more than two weeks ago with "all sides at loggerheads over a path forward that might see remaining Israeli hostages freed and a permanent peace secured".

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he ordered the overnight attacks on Hamas targets because of the "repeated refusal to release our hostages". The US, which was consulted by Israel before the air strikes began, has also sought to blame Hamas. National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes said the militant group "could have released hostages to extend the ceasefire but instead chose refusal and war".

While Israel's air strikes "marked the immediate return to war", said The Spectator, the "breakdown of the ceasefire was the direct result of Hamas' own decisions".

Yet the strikes come as Netanyahu faces "mounting domestic pressure, with mass protests planned over his handling of the hostage crisis and his decision to fire the head of Israel's internal security agency", said Time. He has repeatedly been accused of escalating the war to distract from his legal problems and "his latest testimony in a long-running corruption trial was cancelled after the strikes".

While international outcry over the air strikes has been fierce, more damaging to the Israeli PM will be criticism from domestic groups, especially those representing families of the hostages still held by Hamas.

Accusing the government of backing out of the ceasefire, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a statement that it was "shocked, angry and terrified by the deliberate dismantling of the process to return our loved ones from the terrible captivity of Hamas".

A resumption of fighting would allow Netanyahu to avoid the "tough trade-offs called for in the second phase of the agreement and the thorny question of who would govern Gaza", said Time. It would also "shore up his coalition, which depends on far-right politicians who want to depopulate Gaza and rebuild Jewish settlements there".

What next?

"The fact is that Hamas created this scenario by provoking Israel," said The Jerusalem Post. It has sought to "stall" talks on phase two of the ceasefire, believing it could achieve a "Ramadan ceasefire" throughout March that would allow it to "rebuild its forces".

Hamas reportedly rejected a "bridging deal to end the impasse" put forward by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.

Israel's defence minister, Israel Katz, has warned the "gates of hell will open in Gaza" if the remaining hostages are not released. Along with the intensity of air strikes and other official statements, this suggests this "may be the beginning of a broader and more sustained military operation" in Gaza, said The Spectator.

There have as yet been no reports of retaliatory attacks by Hamas, "indicating it still hoped to restore the truce", said Time.

It is now up to mediators in Qatar and Egypt to "continue trying to figure out a way forward", said Al Jazeera. "It is of course very, very difficult" and "you cannot take Gaza out of the wider geopolitical shifts in the region, particularly with this US administration."

The US appears to be willing to make Hamas – and the people of Gaza – pay for rejecting the proposal put forward by Witkoff. The "bigger picture is that Trump does want an end to the war" but he also "wants the credit for it".