Who would fight Europe's war against Russia?

With no end in sight for Russia's war in Ukraine, Western leaders are warning of a potential escalation on the global stage. 

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has suggested Europe is currently in a "pre-war era". Joe Biden alluded to the "price of unchecked tyranny" as he backed US support for Ukraine. "But checking tyranny comes at a price and, alas, the West’s young seemingly aren’t prepared to pay," said Jamie Dettmer for Politico.

Nato nations, including those who share a border with Ukraine, are struggling to recruit and retain armies. "We cannot do anything without people – if we modernise equipment and don't have enough competent people and motivated people, that is all wasted money," Czech armed forces head General Karel Rehka told Reuters.

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All manner of recruitment strategies – from talk of reinstating conscription in Romania to a military-themed TV show that will air in Hungary by the end of the year – have been employed across the region. 

But even the most successful recruitment campaign struggles to target another of Europe's military roadblocks. "It's no longer so much about recruiting new soldiers as it is about persuading existing troops not to quit," said Politico.

What did the commentators say?

European countries have been missing the mark on military recruitment for some time. Between 2013 and 2023, the number of active French troops dropped by 8.26%. The UK saw an even more drastic reduction, with a 14.63% decrease in the same period, according to the Financial Times. In fact, "the UK has missed its annual military recruiting targets every year for the last decade".

Frontline soldiers aren't necessarily the problem. Most of the "headline numbers" marking the fall in military numbers don't include "critical 'pinch point' skilled roles" in the fields of medicine, communications, engineering and cybersecurity, which are "particularly vulnerable to losses", said the FT. "It is these roles European militaries most urgently need to staff."

Many people simply "do not yet feel an imminent threat", said The Economist, and that's a problem for militaries looking to recruit urgently and retain troops. To boost numbers significantly or sell the public on any type of conscription, "there would need to be a clear and shared understanding of why it was needed. That is lacking in countries such as Britain and France, where it is not obvious what conscripts could do in a modern, technologically sophisticated army."

Plus, "challenges in the military sector", including "the quality of life, relocations, international assignments, uncertainty and the possibility of dying", pose problems for recruiting and retaining service personnel. With changing values and an ageing population, "you need to pay very high salaries to convince people to apply and join the armed forces", Vincenzo Bove, professor of political science at Warwick University in the UK, told Euronews.

What next?

If European armies are to ready themselves for a potential war with Russia, they'll first "have to get the basics right", said the FT. Often, amenities as fundamental as troop accommodation fall into disrepair even while high-tech weapons are replaced and upgraded.

More experimentation with recruitment that appeals to changing demographics is also necessary, "for instance with one-year trials of service that can be combined with university studies or other training", said The Economist. "And despite much discussion, few armies have done enough to recruit women and combat sexual harassment."

Countries like Norway and Sweden have found success with hybrid, selective conscription approaches, deemed the "Scandinavian model". But "a broader view of how to make a military career more appealing" will be necessary to prepare for the worst possible outcome, said the FT.

"To deter the most dangerous enemies, you must be ready for a war that you do not want to fight," said The Economist. "Just ask the courageous Ukrainians."