Will Donald Trump and Tucker Carlson's debate night counterprogramming plan pay off?

There will be a conspicuously Trump-shaped hole onstage at Milwaukee's Fiserv Forum when the bulk of the Republican primary field gathers for the first debate of the 2024 presidential race, moderated by Fox News anchors Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. With a commanding double-digit lead over every other GOP candidate, former President Donald Trump announced this week on his Truth Social platform that he would not participate in this, or any of the other upcoming debates, since the public already "knows who I am & what a successful Presidency I had." Nevertheless, even in absence, Trump is guaranteed to be a major topic of the evening thanks to his unavoidably massive hold on the Republican electorate. For those interested in hearing from Trump himself, the former president has teamed up with onetime Fox News superstar Tucker Carlson for a one-on-one interview scheduled to stream directly opposite the debates on X, formerly known as Twitter.

While no stranger to the art of effective counterprogramming, Trump's debate-night gambit is a uniquely fraught proposition from the former president, fueled not only by political machinations but a nexus of personal and professional considerations from multiple stakeholders. With a Truth Social promise that "SPARKS WILL FLY," Trump is betting big that his brand of political bombast and entertainment will be enough of a draw to keep the spotlight on him, despite the combined efforts of Fox News and the Republican National Committee. But will it work?

What the commentators said

For Trump, the Carlson interview is an opportunity to "steal the spotlight away from lower-polling rivals" while at the same time serving as a "not-so-subtle jab at Fox" with whom his relationship has soured of late, The Washington Post reported. For his part, Carlson is approaching the interview as "a possible boost to efforts to rebuild his audience on X and beyond" after his acrimonious split from the network this past spring. Agreeing that Trump's counterprogramming is a "public humiliation" for Fox, despite the network having "relentlessly propagandized" for the former president over the past few years, Fox's reaction to this latest snub "could not be more different from how it handled a similar situation in 2016," MSNBC columnist Matt Gertz said. Unlike Fox's umbrage when Trump skipped a primary debate during his first campaign, this time the network's "muted reaction" to Trump's counterprogramming plan suggests company decision-makers "realize that they have to grit their teeth and take it."

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Trump also believes "whacking Fox in such a public manner" will "discipline the Murdoch media empire," according to Rolling Stone. "He hopes a noticeable ratings slump for this week's debate will teach Fox a lesson about not giving him what he wants" and ultimately leave network head Rupert Murdoch "no choice but to crawl back to Trump soon."

For Carlson, currently building his own subscription-based media company, according to The Wall Street Journal, the Trump interview is not simply an opportunity to score a point against his former employer, but also the means to "show Elon Musk's team the potential for a deeper partnership," The Wall Street Journal reported. While Trump had initially balked at the prospect of streaming the interview on X, a direct competitor to his Truth Social platform, Carlson and his team won the former president over by arguing that "they did not think Trump's own platform had the necessary reach," according to The Washington Post.

What next?

Regardless of his absence from the stage, Trump will loom large over Wednesday night's debates, with Fox's Baier and MacCallum planning to "ask Trump rivals about his most recent criminal indictment" and are considering "integrating video of Mr. Trump into their questioning," according to The New York Times. There's also the possibility that Trump will weigh in if he's invoked during the debate, particularly with members of his campaign staff barred from Fox's post-debate spin room, as reported by MSNBC; Carlson and Trump have already filmed their interview, according to CNN, leaving the former president free to chime in on his Truth Social account at his leisure.