Although the Rochester and Strood by-election - a week from today - looks like a write-off for the Tories, with defector Mark Reckless certain to win the seat for Ukip, new polling gives David Cameron a glimmer of hope in the longer term.
While there is a mountain to climb (see details below) before the Tories can imagine winning a majority in the May 2015 general election, a new poll from Ipsos-MORI gives the Conservatives a three-point lead over Labour. And new polling by Lord Ashcroft suggests a Ukip win in Rochester could be overturned by the Tories in the general election.
The Ipsos-MORI poll:
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The three-point lead over Labour is the biggest gap Ipsos-MORI has come up with since 2010 and, according to UK Polling Report, the best lead any pollster has given the Tories since January 2012.
The Ipsos-MORI poll for yesterday’s London Evening Standard shows the Tories up two points since October on 32 per cent and Labour down four points on 29 per cent. The Lib Dems are down one point at nine per cent and – perhaps the most significant pointer – Ukip are down two points on 14 per cent.
Ipsos-MORI also has disappointing news for Labour leader Ed Miliband, due to make a “fightback” speech on the economy today.
Only 13 per cent of those questioned by the pollster thought Miliband was ready to be prime minister, down from 22 per cent when the same question was put in June. His personal rating, as calculated by Ipsos-MORI, is minus-44 per cent - lower even than Michael Foot’s score when he led Labour into the (disastrous) 1983 general election.
The Ashcroft poll:
Mark Reckless is on course to become Ukip's second elected MP, according to the latest poll of electors in the Kent seat of Rochester and Strood. The Ukip candidate leads the Tories’ Kelly Tolhurst by 44 to 32 per cent in the latest Ashcroft poll.
Any hopes that the Labour candidate, Naushabah Khan, might “come through the middle” and score a surprise victory in Rochester have evaporated: Ashcroft has Labour at 17 per cent, down 11 points down on their showing in the 2010 general election. The Lib Dems barely register with just two per cent.
But Ashcroft’s polling gives Cameron reason to believe there is plenty to play for if the Tories can limit the scale of their defeat next Thursday. When voters were asked about their 2015 general election choice, the Ukip lead was drastically reduced and the Tories were fractionally ahead: in short, Reckless could be out of a job next May.
With this in mind, Cameron has resorted to an extraordinary appeal for tactical voting against Ukip by non-Tory supporters.
On his fourth visit to Rochester and Strood he told the Kent Messenger it was now a "two-horse race” and that people “who have previously voted Labour, Liberal, Green or anything” should back Kelly Tolhurst to avoid “some Ukip boost and all the uncertainty and instability that leads to”.
If the Tories can limit the damage, it could lessen the chance of more Tory defectors going over to the Faragistes.
Ukip have gone quiet on the issue recently. It could be they want to spring a surprise. Or potential defectors may have told Farage they need to see a thumping majority for Reckless before they decide to throw in their lot with Ukip.
The Tories’ mountain to climb:
The new polls will give the Tories a morale boost – but here are three caveats before they get over-excited:
One, the Ipsos-MORI poll was conducted over the weekend when media speculation about a challenge to Miliband’s leadership was in full spate – which is likely to have had an effect.
Two, other polls published over the last few days have not shown the same kind of downward movement for Labour. YouGov, for instance, has Labour up two points with a three per cent lead while an average of recent polls has the two main parties tied on 32 per cent, which would make Labour the largest party.
Three, most analysts say the Tories need to be nine points ahead in the opinion polls to secure a Commons majority. That means – in terms of Ipsos-MORI polling – widening the gap with Labour at a rate of a point a month between now and May.
But where are the votes supposed to come from? Very few Labour supporters will switch to the Conservatives. The Tories’ only chance is to win back Ukip supporters.
Which is why, within the Tory high command, The Guardian’s disclosure that Nigel Farage has been caught on camera advocating the privatisation of the NHS should be of far more interest than the contents of Ed Miliband’s speech, described by the same paper as a “highly personal political fightback”.
Miliband may be Cameron's rival for Downing Street, but Farage is the enemy in the fight for votes.
