Can the world really wean itself off coal?
'Record' global consumption is set to fall soon but growing demand in China and India could increase tensions

Consumption of coal, the world's biggest source of electricity and foremost human driver of carbon dioxide emissions, has reached record highs.
Global consumption rose by 1.4% in 2023 and surpassed 8.5 billion tonnes for the first time, according to the latest annual report by energy watchdog the International Energy Agency (IEA). The "staggering" quantities are behind 2023's record-high temperatures, said The Washington Post, and represent the gravest threat to humanity.
This increase "masks stark differences" among regions, said Mining Review, and is largely due to the two most populous countries. India's emissions are projected to have risen by 8.2% in 2023, according to the Global Carbon Budget, while China's are expected to have climbed by 4%. That consumption is projected to increase again by similar amounts this year – despite "ambitious" renewable energy targets – due to rising demand.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
But for the first time in its forecasting history, the IEA predicts that global coal demand will decline overall – by 2.3% by 2026. Consumption will fall "sharply" in advanced economies this year, including "record drops" in the EU and US of about 20% each, said the report.
Previously, declines in coal demand were "brief and caused by extraordinary events", said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA director of energy markets and security, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union or the Covid-19 pandemic. This time "appears to be different". The projected decline "could mark a historic turning point".
What the papers said
At the recent Cop28 climate summit in Dubai, a new global deal made "an unprecedented call for countries to transition away from fossil fuels", said CNN. But the agreement fell short of requiring the world to "phase out" coal – despite calls from more than 100 countries and many climate groups. The "vague" language could allow some governments to take "minimal action".
China, the world's largest energy consumer, relies on coal to generate about 60% of its electricity. In December, the government promised to develop new and clean energy and control coal use. But its share of the global electricity consumption is set to jump a third by 2025, according to the IEA.
India, the world's second largest coal producer after China and the third largest energy consumer, also depends on coal for more than three-quarters of its power, said the Financial Times – a reliance that has proved "a point of contention" during Cop summits.
Coal "plays a key role" in India's "high-orbit growth trajectory", an official at the coal ministry told the FT, despite the country's plan to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, and its Cop commitment in 2021 to phase down the use of coal. India's demand will rise from about 1 billion tonnes a year to 1.5 billion tonnes, the coal ministry said. In December, the government outlined plans to triple output from underground mines by 2028.
The Indian government argues that without "major advances to renewable technologies" the country "lacks an alternative" to provide energy security, said the FT. The government also argues that rich nations, which contributed the bulk of emissions, carry the greater responsibility.
For example, the US, the world's second largest coal consumer, is responsible for double the consumption per capita of India, according to the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP). India's coal is also high ash, according to the Brookings Institution, meaning a tonne of US coal emits a third more CO2 than Indian coal.
What next?
"If India and China are still growing economically at decent rates for the next decade, we're not going to see coal demand disappearing anytime soon," Ian Roper, commodity strategist at Astris Advisory Japan KK, told CNBC.
Although the world is "near peak steel", production will remain steady for "many years", said The Strategist. And decarbonising the industry will require "stupendous" levels of investment – trillions, not billions, of dollars. "It will take decades," said the news site, and will require "massive" Asian participation.
Major expansion of renewable energy capacity – more than half of which is set to occur in China – is behind the projected decrease in coal consumption. But that is subject to China's clean energy roll-out, as well as its weather conditions and shifts in the economy.
"The bottom line," said The Strategist, "is that the world needs Asia to prioritise the energy transition over green steel."
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Harriet Marsden is a writer for The Week, mostly covering UK and global news and politics. Before joining the site, she was a freelance journalist for seven years, specialising in social affairs, gender equality and culture. She worked for The Guardian, The Times and The Independent, and regularly contributed articles to The Sunday Times, The Telegraph, The New Statesman, Tortoise Media and Metro, as well as appearing on BBC Radio London, Times Radio and “Woman’s Hour”. She has a master’s in international journalism from City University, London, and was awarded the "journalist-at-large" fellowship by the Local Trust charity in 2021.
-
Today's political cartoons - April 12, 2025
Cartoons Saturday's cartoons - drinking games, tiny hands, and more
By The Week US Published
-
5 invigoratingly funny cartoons about healing the economy
Cartoons Artists take on surgical precision, going under the knife, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Adjapsandali: Georgian-style ratatouille recipe
The Week Recommends Twist on the authentic recipe offers bursts of garlic and spices
By The Week UK Published
-
Inside the Israel-Turkey geopolitical dance across Syria
THE EXPLAINER As Syria struggles in the wake of the Assad regime's collapse, its neighbors are carefully coordinating to avoid potential military confrontations
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
How will the Myanmar earthquake affect the nation's military junta?
Today's Big Question More than 2,700 people have reportedly died from the earthquake
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
What does the Le Pen verdict mean for the future of French politics?
TODAY'S BIG QUESTION Convicted of embezzlement and slapped with a five year ban on running for public office, where does arch-conservative Marine Le Pen go from here — and will the movement she leads follow?
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
'Like a sound from hell': Serbia and sonic weapons
The Explainer Half a million people sign petition alleging Serbian police used an illegal 'sound cannon' to disrupt anti-government protests
By Abby Wilson Published
-
The arrest of the Philippines' former president leaves the country's drug war in disarray
In the Spotlight Rodrigo Duterte was arrested by the ICC earlier this month
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
An ingredient in Coca-Cola may be funding Sudan's war
Under the Radar Global trade in gum arabic centres on the African nation – and proceeds bankroll conflict between the army and paramilitary rebels
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Ukrainian election: who could replace Zelenskyy?
The Explainer Donald Trump's 'dictator' jibe raises pressure on Ukraine to the polls while the country is under martial law
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Why Serbian protesters set off smoke bombs in parliament
THE EXPLAINER Ongoing anti-corruption protests erupted into full view this week as Serbian protesters threw the country's legislature into chaos
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published