The ‘key uncertainty’ for pandemic modellers: human behaviour

Has your social life returned to “normal”? That’s the question pandemic modellers are pondering as they predict what this winter in Britain is going to look like.

During a meeting in mid-October held by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), experts agreed that people’s behaviour was “estimated to be closer to pre-pandemic norms than at any point previously since March 2020”.

But, they added, how people’s activities change over the coming months and how quickly society returns to pre-pandemic norms is “a key uncertainty in the modelled scenarios”.

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‘Cause for concern’

CoMix data, which tracks the contact that British people have with each other, suggests that adults are having face-to-face conversations with an average of only three people a day. This is a “cause for concern”, said The Times, “as it is a long way from pre-pandemic levels of more than ten contacts a day”.

However, data provided by Google’s Covid-19 Community Mobility Reports, which show how people are engaging with their surroundings, suggests that the number of visitors to retail and recreation venues (such as restaurants, shopping centres, cinemas and museums) is only around 5% lower than pre-pandemic levels.

This is positive news, said The Times, as it “suggests far less scope for a big wave as life gets back to pre-Covid patterns”.

Visits to workplaces, on the other hand, are around 30% lower than they were in early February 2020, according to Our World in Data. During last month’s meeting, Sage agreed that the “reintroduction of working from home guidance” – one of the government’s proposed Plan B measures – would be likely to have “the greatest individual impact on transmission”.

The group concluded that a “slower return to pre-pandemic behaviours”, coupled with “reduced waning” thanks to Covid booster jabs, is expected to “reduce and delay any further wave” of Covid infections.

But, Sage added, “there remains potential for a rapid increase in hospital admissions if behaviours change quickly”.

UK is a ‘control experiment’

As the first country to approve a Covid vaccine – and one with comparably lax restrictions – the UK has “become a control experiment that scientists across the world are studying”, said Nature.

Experts keeping an eye on the country’s extremely high infection rate over recent months have linked it to a gradual rise in social interactions as schools and offices have reopened. This explains why the UK has experienced “a sustained high level of infections rather than the spike that models predicted in August or September”, said Nature.

After watching the UK’s infection rate creep up after easing lockdown restrictions, other countries are taking a conservative approach when it comes to permitting “normal” behaviours.

“Uruguay is using the United Kingdom’s rise in infections as a cautionary tale to warn people of the risk of easing restrictions prematurely,” said biochemist Rafael Radi, coordinator of Uruguay’s Covid-19 Scientific Advisory Group.

‘Running hot’

Yesterday, England’s deputy chief medical officer warned that the current “very high” Covid-19 rates meant there are hard months to come.

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam told the BBC that too many people believe the pandemic is over and it was a concern that case levels are “running this hot, this early in the autumn season”.

The next months are “potentially going to be problematic”, he said.

Christmas and the winter generally depend on the success of the booster programme, but also “human behaviours and caution”.