As Angela Merkel prepares to step down from front-line politics after a 16-year reign as Germany’s chancellor, pundits are already speculating about what the most powerful women in global politics will do next.
Merkel has been in office for so long that she has been dubbed the “eternal chancellor”, and she is leaving “with her popularity so resilient she would likely have won a record fifth term had she wanted to extend her mandate”, said France 24.
Indeed, her time in power has been “historic in many ways”, said The Local. As well as being the first female leader of Germany, and the country’s second-longest-serving chancellor, Merkel is also “the first chancellor to leave the top job at a time of her own choosing”.
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Caretaker chancellor
Although Merkel has chosen not to run for re-election when Germans head to the polls on Sunday, she may have to stay in office as a “caretaker chancellor” for some time - possibly until next year.
“Under the German constitution, Merkel will remain chancellor until a majority of Bundestag lawmakers elects a successor, who is then sworn in,” Reuters explained. But with all the signs pointing to a “fractured vote”, forming a new coalition government may prove complicated.
After the September 2017 election, coalition negotiations dragged on until the following March.
Merkel will have “no formal restrictions on her powers” while in the caretaker role, the news agency continued. Admittedly, she “is a consensus seeker and previous chancellors have not taken radical decisions during the window”.
But as well as putting her on course to surpass her former mentor Helmut Kohl as Germany’s longest-serving postwar chancellor - a record she would set on 17 December - an extended stint in power would “give Merkel the chance to broker a new round of so-called 'Normandy format' talks with Russia, Ukraine and France”, in a bid to quell the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
Climate law reforms
Merkel has indicated that in her role as caretaker chancellor, she will also continue to play a role in Europe’s “Fit for 55” climate protection plans.
The EU Commission has put together a package of energy and climate laws aimed at reaching the bloc’s new target of reducing net emissions by 55% for 2030.
“Just about every EU law on energy and climate is going to be revised as part of the package, ranging from the renewable energy directive to EU legislation affecting energy taxation and the crown jewel of EU climate policy – the Emissions Trading Scheme, which regulates the world’s biggest carbon market,” reported Euroactiv.
Negotiations on these reforms are likely to begin while a new German government is being formed, as Merkel acknowledged in July, adding: “We want to make sure we have a good handover.”
A new role in the EU?
Although Merkel has not publicly suggested that she will remain in EU politics, recent polling has found that many Europeans would support her “taking a leading role” in the bloc, reported Politico.
In a hypothetical race between Merkel and French leader Emmanuel Macron for the EU presidency, a majority would support the German chancellor, according to a survey published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank.
Of a total 16,257 people quizzed across 12 EU member states, 41% said they would back her over Macron, with support for Merkel highest in the Netherlands (58%), Spain (57%) and Portugal (52%).
Rest and relaxation?
Despite the ongoing speculation about her future, Merkel’s current post-chancellorship plans seem to be to do “nothing”, reported Bloomberg.
“I have decided for myself that, first of all, I will do nothing and just wait for what comes up,” said told the news site earlier this month.
The German leader added that although she expected “invitations”, she was reluctant to “start making myself an agenda again, only because I’m afraid of the vacuum... I don’t want that”.
That sentiment chimes with her response when asked in June, during her final trip to Washington, what she was looking forward most about her post-leadership life post-leadership.
“Not having to constantly make decisions,” Merkel replied.
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