When Manu met Joe: can state visit repair France-US relations?

Emmanuel Macron arrives in Washington DC today for a state visit to the US capital, with tensions over security and green subsidies coming after a rocky few years for US-France relations.

When the French president last visited the White House in 2018, he was seen as a leading voice of pragmatism on the world stage, trying to temper Donald Trump’s isolationist tendencies. The intervening years have seen a series of political and economic shocks including a global pandemic, war in Europe and an energy crisis that have seriously tested transatlantic ties.

Relations between the US and France reached a low point in September last year after President Biden secured a new security partnership with the UK and Australia, known as Aukus, at the expense of the French, who in response recalled their ambassador from Washington for the first time in history.

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Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine might have reaffirmed a joint sense of mission between the two nuclear powers, but their economic and security objectives remain far from aligned.

What did the newspapers say?

“Hosting Macron at the White House can be construed as a gesture of grace by US President Joe Biden,” reported Foreign Affairs. “He and the French leader have made efforts to rebuild trust after the AUKUS blowup, but their administrations remain to some degree misaligned on vital economic and strategic issues”.

“Macron’s visit seems to suggest that the US-France relationship is at a high point,” said foreign policy website Inkstick. “Yet, while the state visit is certainly a welcome sign of warming relations after the frigid Trump years and the cold front of President Joe Biden’s first year in office, pomp and circumstance should not lead to a sense of complacency.”

Although Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced the Biden administration to refocus on Europe, “the US still sees countering China on economic competition and security as its main strategic priority”, said the Financial Times.

The war has also shifted Nato’s centre of gravity east and drawn attention away from France’s main security focus of fighting jihadist terrorism in the Middle East and Sahel region of Africa.

While Macron has long pushed for greater European strategic autonomy, Europe’s over-reliance on the US within Nato has been laid bare by the response to a war on its own doorstep. According to the Kiel Institute, of the nearly €39bn committed to assist Ukraine’s military as of the start of October, almost 28bn had come from the US.

Growing US frustration with the disparity between its support for Ukraine and that of key European allies, including France, “is reigniting the longstanding transatlantic security burden-sharing debate”, said Inkstick.

From a European perspective, there is a feeling that the US needs to take greater account of the damage done to Europe’s economy from spiralling energy costs brought on by the war in Ukraine.

“Perhaps more pressing,” said AP, “are differences that France and other European Union leaders have raised about Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act [IRA].” The administration’s signature piece of legislation grants billions in green subsidies and tax breaks for things such as electric vehicles and renewable energy but only if they are assembled and key parts such as the batteries are made in America.

The EU has pushed back against these incentives to effectively “Buy American”, arguing they unfairly discriminate against its own producers, given that the EU market remains open to US products. France has even threatened to file a formal complaint with the World Trade Organization or respond with a series of “Buy European” measures.

What next?

“While France is under no illusion that Biden will back down on the package, Paris is seeking to convince the US Treasury to finesse its implementation of the IRA so that European companies are given similar exceptions as Canada and Mexico,” reported Politico.

“If Biden can’t deliver, a transatlantic trade war will be somewhat inevitable, risking a Europe vs. America subsidy race and tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs,” added the news site.

On Ukraine, both leaders face a difficult balancing act as support for the war weakens. With Republicans set to take control of the House and vowing not to continue writing a “blank check” to fund the war, Biden will look to Europe to take a more active role, both strategically and financially.

Across the Atlantic, “Macron’s efforts to keep Europe united will be tested by the mounting costs of supporting Ukraine in the nine-month war and as Europe battles rising energy prices that threaten to derail the post-pandemic economic recovery”, said AP.

There is also disagreement about the threat posed by China, which “looks quite different depending on whether one sits in Washington or Paris”, said Inkstick.

“The United States views Beijing as the most significant threat to the US-led order and is increasingly bent on pursuing all measures available to constrain its rise. France, by contrast, sees an opportunity for Europe to act as an intermediary between China and the United States and flex its own geopolitical muscle in the process,” concluded the news site.