NHS cash gets public thumbs-up - just as Labour knew it would
The private polling conducted before a leader’s speech is as critical as the opinion polling afterwards

It will have come as no surprise to Ed Miliband that the first polling on his Labour conference speech showed heavy public support for his signature policy – extra NHS spending on more midwives, nurses and care workers to be paid for by taxes on tobacco companies, a mansion tax and closing tax loopholes.
The fact is he wouldn’t have made the NHS pledge unless public polling and the Labour Party’s own voter research didn’t show that that it was a powerful reason for people to vote Labour.
A Survation phone poll was carried out for the website Labour List in the hours immediately after the hour-long speech found 72 per cent of the public in favour, compared to just 12 per cent opposed. Crucially it won 84 per cent support from people who had voted Lib Dem in 2010.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The so-called ‘switchers’ from the Lib Dems are currently giving Labour a lead in the voter intention polls and as I have mentioned before, they are big fans of Ed Miliband: keeping their support holds the key to Downing Street for the Labour leader.
- The Mole: Labour backs IS strikes - but gaffes rule the day
- Robert Chesshyre: Mansion tax will destroy communities
The latest YouGov poll for The Sun gives Labour a lead of six points – Labour 37 per cent, Conservatives 31, Ukip 15 and Lib Dems on seven. That lead is at the top end of the range of Labour leads in recent polls – but according to projections by Electoral Calculus even a three per cent lead would give Miliband an overall majority in the May 2015 general election.
The Survation poll also covered other Miliband pledges at the party conference. As Labour List reports: “There has been some consternation among Labour members at conference that the pledge to raise the minimum wage to £8 by 2020 does not go far enough. There are particular worries that unless interest rates go up, inflation will outstrip this rise, making it a real terms pay cut for those who earn the least.
“However, Ed Miliband changed the language in his speech slightly to say that it would be ‘above £8’ - and the public are wholeheartedly behind efforts to raise the minimum wage, with 68 per cent of those polled backing such a rise.”
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
On housing, Survation found that Miliband enjoys 50 per cent of public support for making house-building a top priority and aiming to “build as many homes the UK needs” by 2025, doubling the number of first-time buyers. The policy was supported by nearly half of all 2010 Tory voters.
The Survation poll did not include a question about Ed Miliband’s personal standing and it’s unlikely that the speech, which was more pedestrian in delivery but richer in content than previous conference outings, will have done anything to change his negative ratings.
Charisma bypass operations are not available on the NHS even with more funding and Labour are stuck with the leader they have got.
What Labour does have, says Political Betting, is a “better brand” than the Tories which explains Labour’s persistent poll lead. The attacks on ‘Ed the Geek’ and such like will only increase as we get closer to the election but Team Labour clearly believes the best option is to put the leader’s personality to one side and concentrate on issues it believes – actually, knows - will be popular with core supporters.
Anyone who underestimates the amount of polling that goes into modern politics should look up the story earlier this month about Angela Merkel.
As the Daily Telegraph reported, the German Chancellor, well-known for “her seemingly unerring sense of the national mood”, was “found out” by Der Spiegel to have been using private polling on an industrial scale in order top formulate popular policies.
Her office commissioned more than 600 opinion polls between 2009 and 2013, yet Merkel herself had said in a 2006 comment to reporters: “I’m doing what I think is right and important ... to judge by polls would be completely wrong.”
Ho hum. Make no mistake - pollsters will have their fingerprints all over the speeches by Nigel Farage, David Cameron and Nick Clegg at their respective party conference in the coming days. Though whether they will make the mistake of forgetting to deliver chunks of party policy is unlikely.
-
Taking aim at Venezuela’s autocrat
Feature The Trump administration is ramping up military pressure on Nicolás Maduro. Is he a threat to the U.S.?
-
Comey indictment: Is the justice system broken?
Feature U.S. attorney Lindsey Halligan has indicted former FBI Director James Comey on charges of lying and obstructing Congress
-
Government shuts down amid partisan deadlock
Feature As Democrats and Republicans clash over health care and spending, the shutdown leaves 750,000 federal workers in limbo
-
Is Andy Burnham making a bid to replace Keir Starmer?
Today's Big Question Mayor of Manchester on manoeuvres but faces a number of obstacles before he can even run
-
Angela Rayner: the rise and fall of a Labour stalwart
In the Spotlight Deputy prime minister resigned after she underpaid £40,000 in stamp duty
-
The runners and riders for the Labour deputy leadership
The Explainer Race to replace Angela Rayner likely to come down to Starmer loyalist vs. soft-left MP supported by backbenchers and unions
-
How should Keir Starmer right the Labour ship?
Today's Big Question Rightward shift on immigration and welfare not the answer to 'haemorrhaging of hope, trust and electoral support'
-
'Three Pads' Rayner: a housing hypocrite?
Talking Point As real estate moguls go, the Deputy PM is 'hardly Donald Trump'
-
Who will win the battle for the soul of the Green Party?
An ideological divide is taking root among the environmentalists
-
Are we facing a summer of riots?
Today's Big Question Anti-immigrant unrest in Essex has sparked fears of a summer of disorder
-
Who stands to gain – and lose – from 16-year-old voters?
Today's Big Question Many assume Labour will benefit but move could 'backfire' if Greens, a new hard-left party or Reform continue to pick up momentum