It will have come as no surprise to Ed Miliband that the first polling on his Labour conference speech showed heavy public support for his signature policy – extra NHS spending on more midwives, nurses and care workers to be paid for by taxes on tobacco companies, a mansion tax and closing tax loopholes.
The fact is he wouldn’t have made the NHS pledge unless public polling and the Labour Party’s own voter research didn’t show that that it was a powerful reason for people to vote Labour.
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The so-called ‘switchers’ from the Lib Dems are currently giving Labour a lead in the voter intention polls and as I have mentioned before, they are big fans of Ed Miliband: keeping their support holds the key to Downing Street for the Labour leader.
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The latest YouGov poll for The Sun gives Labour a lead of six points – Labour 37 per cent, Conservatives 31, Ukip 15 and Lib Dems on seven. That lead is at the top end of the range of Labour leads in recent polls – but according to projections by Electoral Calculus even a three per cent lead would give Miliband an overall majority in the May 2015 general election.
The Survation poll also covered other Miliband pledges at the party conference. As Labour List reports: “There has been some consternation among Labour members at conference that the pledge to raise the minimum wage to £8 by 2020 does not go far enough. There are particular worries that unless interest rates go up, inflation will outstrip this rise, making it a real terms pay cut for those who earn the least.
“However, Ed Miliband changed the language in his speech slightly to say that it would be ‘above £8’ - and the public are wholeheartedly behind efforts to raise the minimum wage, with 68 per cent of those polled backing such a rise.”
On housing, Survation found that Miliband enjoys 50 per cent of public support for making house-building a top priority and aiming to “build as many homes the UK needs” by 2025, doubling the number of first-time buyers. The policy was supported by nearly half of all 2010 Tory voters.
The Survation poll did not include a question about Ed Miliband’s personal standing and it’s unlikely that the speech, which was more pedestrian in delivery but richer in content than previous conference outings, will have done anything to change his negative ratings.
Charisma bypass operations are not available on the NHS even with more funding and Labour are stuck with the leader they have got.
What Labour does have, says Political Betting, is a “better brand” than the Tories which explains Labour’s persistent poll lead. The attacks on ‘Ed the Geek’ and such like will only increase as we get closer to the election but Team Labour clearly believes the best option is to put the leader’s personality to one side and concentrate on issues it believes – actually, knows - will be popular with core supporters.
Anyone who underestimates the amount of polling that goes into modern politics should look up the story earlier this month about Angela Merkel.
As the Daily Telegraph reported, the German Chancellor, well-known for “her seemingly unerring sense of the national mood”, was “found out” by Der Spiegel to have been using private polling on an industrial scale in order top formulate popular policies.
Her office commissioned more than 600 opinion polls between 2009 and 2013, yet Merkel herself had said in a 2006 comment to reporters: “I’m doing what I think is right and important ... to judge by polls would be completely wrong.”
Ho hum. Make no mistake - pollsters will have their fingerprints all over the speeches by Nigel Farage, David Cameron and Nick Clegg at their respective party conference in the coming days. Though whether they will make the mistake of forgetting to deliver chunks of party policy is unlikely.
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