Is the Wellingborough by-election really such a gift for Labour?

Conservative MP Peter Bone has been unseated in a recall petition by his constituents in Wellingborough, in what appears to be an early Christmas present for Labour. 

Bone was ousted after being suspended from the Commons for the past six weeks after a Parliamentary inquiry upheld allegations of sexual misconduct and bullying. Bone, who denies the allegations, lost the Tory whip and was sitting as an independent until he was unseated by voters.

A by-election is set to take place in the new year, and has meant calls "for a general election are louder than ever", said The Independent, but Labour will still need to "fight hard to overturn a chunky majority" in the Northamptonshire constituency, added David Wood at ITV News.

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What the papers said

With Parliament in recess for Christmas, the date of the by-election has yet to be determined, but it is certainly an "unwelcome gift" for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, said The Spectator. The government will be trying to make it happen at "the least possible damaging moment" for Sunak and the rest of his "beleaguered troops".

Cabinet minister Mel Stride said the Tories would "fight for every single vote" as it looks to defend the 18,540 majority it won in 2019. But while such a figure would "normally make it safe", the party has "suffered a string of bruising by-election defeats" and has seen "bigger majorities evaporate", said The Standard.

Labour, which finished second in the constituency at the last general election, will be "running at it hard" to try to take another "true blue" seat and add "yet more evidence of the overall direction" voters are leaning in the run-up to the next election, said Politico. While it may be an "uphill battle for Labour", they might still "expect to win it". And "they would be doing very well," even if they took a large bite out of the Tory majority without winning, polling expert John Curtice told the news website.

Indeed, while Labour will try to "hit the ground running on this campaign" and "throw the kitchen sink at it" before a date has even been announced, they know "they will really have to fight hard to win voters over" in the constituency, added Wood.

The Wellingborough seat is a "classic Con/Lab marginal" and has often "been a bellwether" for the overall outcome until Bone took the seat, despite an overall win for Labour in 2005, said The Independent. He built up a "sizeable majority in the intervening years" and it became "especially propitious" in 2019 for the Tories because of the "unusually large Leave vote" and Bone's backing of Brexit.

What next?

It is unclear if Bone will stand again as an independent, as he is allowed to do, but he "didn't rule out" running again having fervently denied the allegations against him, said Politico. However, that may make things more difficult for the Tories. Though Bone was a "popular MP", that may be "less true now" and his presence on the ballot may "split the Tory vote and help Labour" to victory, added the Independent.

Win or lose, there is "not much" meaning in the results for either Labour or the Conservatives in the "long term", said Politico, as it's "only one by-election". For Sunak though, Bone's exit is the loss of one of his slim majority that helped him succeed in the vote on the Rwanda bill last week. 

For Labour, Wellingborough is not a seat it "has to win to get the keys for No. 10", said Wood. But the Labour leader Keir Starmer will nevertheless be determined to grab victory and deliver another blow to the Tories, as he remains "desperate to look in control and on track to win Downing Street".